Last Thanksgiving, Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport had many reasons to give thanks. Over the holiday weekend two million passengers passed through the airport—the third busiest in the world—representing an 8 percent increase over 2002. To acknowledge the returning crowds, the airport hired live bands to serenade the holiday travelers.

The airline industry as a whole has been thankful recently. After suffering a downturn that reached its nadir following September 11, 2001, the industry now appears to be on the mend. The impact of the terrorist attacks was unprecedented on many levels, especially for the airlines. The following February, the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was reported in Asia. In March, war erupted in Iraq. "If you look at the statistics, you see the impact of a succession of events on the industry," says Bernard Lisker, an international director at MITRE's Center for Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD). "The good news is that international flight has become so integral to our global economy that its rebound is inevitable."

Leveraging New Technology for New Solutions

As the federally funded research and development center for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), one of CAASD's primary missions involves supporting a safe, secure, and efficient global aviation system. While the majority of our work focuses on aviation in the United States, the FAA encourages us to also share our expertise to advance the harmonization of aviation around the world. Over the past decade MITRE has worked with clients in more than 40 countries. "We're supporting not only the FAA, but also civil aviation authorities around the world," says C.C. Hsin, CAASD's regional director for Asia Pacific.

CAASD is leveraging new information technology, in conjunction with systems engineering, that will help support this recovery of international aviation. The latest technology addresses a wide range of issues: improving safety, using airspace more effectively, decreasing delays, expanding airport capacity, and performing operations most efficiently. Increasingly, the technology requires a global perspective. Flow management, for example, helps neighboring countries to better share airspace. Similarly, the next generation of satellite-based navigation and surveillance systems covers entire regions.

"We are working on a host of technologies that will benefit civil aviation authorities around the world," says Gregg Leone, CAASD regional director for Canada, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. "These include modeling and simulation tools, which allow us to redesign airspace, build navigation routes, and assess system capacity needs. MITRE is also developing advanced traffic flow management capabilities and collaboration tools, as well as advancements in communications, navigation, and surveillance systems."

Global aviation's share of passengers

Growing Global Air Traffic

Evidence of a recovery for international aviation can be found in Milan, Italy, where airline officials have asked MITRE to help with airport capacity and noise issues. Europe accounts for 29 percent of the world's share of airline passengers, and its aviation industry suffered from the economic fallout of September 11. The recent success of low-cost airlines, however, is helping the region to be well on its way to recovery and traffic levels not seen since the year 2000.

Società Esercizi Aeroportuali, the Italian agency that operates the two airports in Milan, faces rising demand for air travel. To assist the Italians, we will analyze the runway capacity of Malpensa Airport to define how the runways can best be used to maximize capacity and address peaks in arrivals and departures. MITRE has done this kind of work at major airports in the United States and abroad, including Chicago O'Hare, Dallas-Fort Worth, Heathrow, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Barcelona, Brussels, Zurich, Singapore, Taipei, Buenos Aires, and Mexico City.

"We will perform a delay analysis to determine the demand level at which the airport will become saturated," says Lisker. "We will also look at how to increase capacity without increasing noise levels." The end result will determine the approximate air traffic volumes that will dictate the need to either construct a third runway or develop new operational procedures.

The Asia Pacific region, which accounts for 23 percent of the world's share of aviation passengers, was relatively unscathed by the events of September 11. While traffic to Europe and North America declined, intra-region traffic in Asia continued to grow. When the SARS epidemic became public, however, all traffic was affected. Hong Kong was hardest hit—passenger demand to and from the city fell as much as 91 percent—but other areas were also affected, including Taipei. Expecting full recovery, Taipei is preparing to implement the next generation of air traffic control systems, with MITRE's help. "A MITRE team will plan, design, and implement Taipei's entire communications, navigation, and surveillance/air traffic management system," says Hsin. "We have quite a bit of experience helping a number of countries develop a master plan for the next generation of air traffic control." This International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)-compliant system will include satellite communication, navigation, and surveillance systems, data link applications, advanced air traffic control, air traffic flow management, and airspace management capabilities.

In addition to Asia, the Middle East is a surprising bright spot for international aviation. In spite of ongoing unrest, the region has the second highest growth rate in the world for air traffic. Dubai, especially, continues to enjoy robust growth.

Latin America, too, has made recent strides. The financial crises in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay made it difficult to assess the impact of September 11 on the region, but new airport development reflects growing financial stability. MITRE has a long relationship with aviation agencies in several Latin American countries. In Mexico, MITRE is assisting the government of the state of Veracruz to evaluate four new airport sites near El Carrizal, Cabada, Cuitláhuac, and Nautla. These evaluations will focus primarily on meteorology, approaches and departures, and noise. Similarly, MITRE is assisting with an airport in Toluca, the capital of Mexico's most industrialized state.

Passenger confidence is returning around the world. Pent-up demand will play a significant role in getting international aviation back on its feet. According to ICAO, the aviation organization of the United Nations, the industry is showing signs of recovery. It predicts that airline passenger traffic will rebound with growth of 4.4 percent in 2004 and 6.3 percent in 2005. Giovanni Bisignani, the director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), recently predicted that the worst of the downturn is over. In fact, IATA predicts 7 to 8 percent growth in 2004. "We're seeing lots of encouraging indicators," says MITRE's Gregg Leone. "This has been a challenging time for international aviation, but we're looking forward to the return of a healthy industry."

—by David W. Savold

Page last updated: February 19, 2004 | Top of page