Decision Support -- Projects

Airspace Design Research

Counter-Deception Decision Support

Cross-Domain Decision Support

DEPARTS

Development of NAS Operational Concepts for Year 2010 and Beyond

Enhanced Planning and Integrated Coordination Capability

Exploring Obstacles to Collaborative Weather Rerouting/Congestion Management

Improving Capacity of Dual and Triple Converging Configuration

Mental Models in Naturalistic Decision Making

Mixed-Initiative Control of Automa-teams (MICA)

Operational Complexity Indicators for TFM Decision Support

Surface Safety

Decision Support

Decision Support focuses on cognitive-centered decision support applications and new methods and tools for developing effective systems that support decision-making. Emphasis is placed on decision-making in dynamically changing real-time environments (occurring in a day or less). Research in human decision-making to enable the development of better support systems for the military or other sponsors is covered in this area. Also covered is the demonstration of decision aids that advance the state of the art.

Airspace Design Research

Graham Glover, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
The ATC system handles increases in traffic by creating more, smaller sectors, splitting workload among more controllers. At some point, further reduction in sector size is not feasible because of insufficient maneuvering space and insufficient flight time in the sector. If further increases in traffic are to be accommodated, a method must be found for increasing the capacity of sectors.

Objectives
The project will develop a concept for managing more traffic in sectors that are too small to split further, or in sectors nearing that limit. Methods may include structuring traffic or changing the roles of controllers in a possibly larger sector team. We will realize the concept in a scenario detailed enough to evaluate with simulation modeling.

Activities
The project will analyze traffic in selected sectors (e.g., choke points) to understand issues besides simple volume that lead to splitting sectors, and use the results in discussions with operational people to refine understanding. We will generate candidate strategies for removing or alleviating constraints on controllers that lead to sector splitting, evaluate strategies, and create one or two integrated concepts described in a scenario suitable for modeling.

Impacts
The work will support user preferences by permitting increased traffic in currently congested areas with minimal rerouting and delays. Achieving this will require the results of this research to be adopted into the FAA work program for evaluation and refinement through fast-time and human-in-the-loop simulation and the development of necessary training and procedures.

Counter-Deception Decision Support

Frank Stech, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
Denial and Deception aims to disrupt an adversary's ability to "observe, orient, and decide," and induce inaccurate impressions about friendly capabilities or intentions, causing the adversary to apply intelligence collection assets inappropriately, or fail to employ capabilities to best advantage. While the need for counter-deception (CD) is recognized, proposed solutions make little or no use of the psychology of deception and decision-making.

Objectives
We will develop a decision framework based on existing research on the psychology of deception, and integrate the framework with belief modeling tools to create a counter-deception decision support system for intelligence analysts. Our hypothesis is that the psychology of decision-making and deception can be combined with existing belief management and planning technology to produce a counter-deception decision support system.

Activities
In the Modeling Phase we will construct a psychological framework of deception based on a Deception Taxonomy and Deception Cognitive Model. In the Development Phase we will develop tools for generating deception hypotheses and assessing the evidence of deceptions. The result will be a computational system that helps analysts to recognize potential deception moves, evaluate evidence, identify probable deceptions, and de-bias estimates. The Assessment Phase will test the hypothesis through experiments with intelligence analysts.

Impacts
Research in CD will position MITRE to assist in several intelligence community initiatives. The research will position MITRE to develop systems to address several of our sponsor's identified "hard problems." The research will also augment the Information Operations Planning Tool ACTD with deception planning aids.

Cross-Domain Decision Support

Deborah L. Harris, Principal Investigator

Bedford only

Problem
When information in one mission area (such as combat support) changes, it may affect information in other mission areas (such as combat operations), but since information is not easily shared across mission area boundaries, except through predefined, hard links, it is difficult to track the impact of changes.

Objectives
This project is exploring ways to propagate notifications of changes to information in one mission area to other mission areas and to flag data that may be affected by those changes. This includes exploration into visual presentation of the change notices.

Activities
We are 1) developing a decision aid toolkit to fuse information across mission areas; 2) integrating cross-domain information in simulation-based visual display; and 3) evaluating the effectiveness of presentation mechanisms.

Impacts
This research will help build better decision support systems through aggregation and presentation of information across mission areas. The outcome of this project will provide a basis for determining how to use information aggregation to improve the quality of decisions while decreasing time spent in the decision-coordination cycle.

DEPARTS

Wayne Cooper, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
The ATC system reduces departure delays by assigning departures to runways and by sequencing them to effectively increase runway throughput and reduce user taxi-out times. This is currently done without the use of automated decision support tools. This problem is made difficult to solve by the lack of a timely and reliable prediction of when a flight will be ready to push back. Consequently, at major airports flights can encounter long taxi-out times while waiting in departure queues.

Objectives
The DEPARTS research has previously developed a set of computer algorithms that can be used to recommend optimal departure runway assignments and departure sequences (DEPARTS is not a stand-alone decision-support tool, but rather a set of algorithms that could be embedded in such a tool). We have also previously analyzed the potential benefit of using such algorithms, based on simulated use at Atlanta Hartsfield. The objectives for FY02 include investigating whether we can generalize these algorithms to other locations, performing further benefits analyses, improving computational efficiency, and making recommendations for technology transition.

Activities
During FY2002, DEPARTS is being adapted to function at a wider variety of airports and is being extended to include the explicit modeling of taxi paths from push-back to wheels-off. A number of simulated scenarios are envisioned to show the effect of differing levels of data quality and availability on the benefits of using the DEPARTS algorithms to recommend operational actions (e.g., runway assignments and final departure sequence). Technical interchange meetings are underway with other research organizations, and we plan to present our results at a number of industry conferences in 2002.

Impacts
The main impact of DEPARTS will be to advance the research being done in the departure planning area, and to impact the design of decision support tools currently being developed. Specific results will demonstrate the benefits of using DEPARTS algorithms for planning departure operations 10-30 minutes prior to push-back, and measure the added benefit of improving data availability and predictability.

Development of NAS Operational Concepts for Year 2010 and Beyond

Satish Mohleji, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
Although the NAS Operational Evolution Plan includes enhancements in cockpit and ATC systems until 2010, little change is expected in mode of flight operations. The passengers often spend more time in ingress/egress between home and gate than flight time. What is needed are not only gate-to-gate operational improvements, but also faster access to the airports and real time flight information through a collaborative ATM system permitting users and operators to participate in decision making.

Objectives
The project objective is to develop operational concepts for NAS beyond 2010 incorporating satellite-based communication, navigation and surveillance (CNS), wake vortex avoidance, and enhanced vision technologies. The future ATM system design will not only enhance current hub-and-spoke airport operations but will also provide: 1) direct service between smaller airports; 2) intra-city air taxi operations; and 3) integration of information technologies for real time information exchange with users.

Activities
The activities include: 1) assessment of implications and viability of developing a centralized database for collecting and providing real-time information on flight current positions and trajectory-based flight plans to all users and operators; 2) development of a multi-modal concept of operations for NAS for 2020 by considering use of satellite airports for ferrying passengers from/to the hubs using smaller aircraft, tilt rotors and helicopters; and 3) consideration of electronics for integrating NAS information exchange with individual appliances (e.g., PCs, mobile phones, TVs, etc.).

Impacts
This project will serve as seed corn for setting the direction for the long-range research program for CAASD and the FAA by shifting the paradigm. The findings will help CAASD assume a leadership role in directing the FAA's research for NAS improvements beyond 2010.

Enhanced Planning and Integrated Coordination Capability

Leslie M. Benson, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
Operational Supervisors/Controllers-in-Charge (OS/CICs) rely on information from both the Traffic Management Unit (TMU) and sectors to effectively manage area resources and respond to Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives. The existing information flow between the area, TMU and sector is manual, workload-intensive, and often inefficient. The OS/CIC is the focal point for communications between the en route sector and the TMU; however, the current decision support capabilities available in the area do not fully meet their operational needs.

Objective
An operational need exists to provide decision support capabilities that will improve the situational awareness and efficiency of the OS/CIC while facilitating collaborative decision making with TFM-ATC to implement strategic flow initiatives. An operational concept needs to be developed to support the definition and evaluation of decision support capabilities that are designed to improve the efficiency of the OS/CICs as they manage the resources within their area of specialization.

Activities
An operational concept will be developed outlining the definition of decision support capabilities needed to address situational awareness issues and improve the efficiency of the OS/CIC. Evaluations will be conducted with field personnel to refine the operational concept and assess the operational utility and functional impacts and benefits of the capabilities. The proposed research will also define strategies for implementing these capabilities to meet the operational needs of the OS/CIC.

Impacts
Accommodating increasing demand for air traffic services will require improved communication, increased collaborative decision-making, and flexible systems designed to maximize service provider efficiency. Maximum realization of benefits can only be achieved when there are systems in place to support seamless communication and coordination, and when all service providers are adequately equipped with decision support capabilities that best support their roles.

Exploring Obstacles to Collaborative Weather Rerouting/Congestion Management

Celesta Ball, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
Within the aviation industry there is a general agreement on the need for collaborative tools and procedures for solving weather-related congestion problems. Through regular meetings and discussions, stakeholders have reached some consensus on high-level concepts, however, current efforts focus on near-term mitigation strategies. Solutions are needed for the longer term, addressing technology gaps and other obstacles.

Objectives
The objectives of this project are to synthesize an FAA/industry collaborative congestion management concept from general philosophical agreements, and to identify issues in congestion management for the future, including essential weaknesses and technology gaps affecting procedures, tools, and data exchange needed to implement that concept.

Activities
This project synthesizes a strawman operational concept based on existing FAA/industry philosophical agreements, congestion management strategies used internationally or proposed by other research, and a project-sponsored workshop. It identifies essential weaknesses and technology gaps affecting procedures, tools and data exchange needed to implement the concept. It proposes research needed to investigate promising congestion management approaches.

Impacts
This project can impact two of the NAS Operational Evolution Plan (OEP) solutions: "collaborate to manage congestion" and "respond effectively to hazardous weather." Both can benefit from improved procedures and technology.

Improving Capacity of Dual and Triple Converging Configurations

Anand Mundra, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
By combining existing procedures for converging runways with expected final approach speeds and/or flight management system (FMS)-based missed approaches, significant capacity gains can accrue. The key challenges are: a) obtaining good estimates of final approach speeds, which depends on developing a viable option for downlinking relevant information from the cockpit; and b) performance and certification of FMS-based missed approaches.

Objectives
This project will develop an understanding of how accurate the estimates of final approach speed can be 10 to 20 minutes before landing. It will also investigate several architectural alternatives for transmitting this information to the ground automation. The project will also explore the potential for using FMS-based missed approaches.

Activities
Approach speed accuracy will be analyzed through an understanding of cockpit practices and dependence on airframes. A data collection will also be designed with United Airlines. Several data link alternatives will be analyzed and a hazard assessment will be conducted. An operations concept will be developed to reflect a viable approach. FMS-based possibilities will be included as possible.

Impacts
Several airports, including Chicago O'Hare, Dallas-Ft. Worth and Washington Dulles, could benefit from a procedure that utilizes these capabilities. In the case of Chicago this could amount to an increase of 15% to 30% in the arrival capacity of the airport in instrument weather conditions.

Mental Models in Naturalistic Decision Making

Kevin J. Burns, Principal Investigator

Bedford only

Problem
In naturalistic decision making, people are faced with uncertain information, dynamic conditions and team collaboration. When do people succeed? How do people fail? Where can computer systems help (or hurt)?

Objectives
Our objective is to develop computational models of how people make decisions in "prototypical" (naturalistic) command and control tasks. The key tasks include risk assessment (with probabilistic information), resource management (on dynamic missions) and rational engagement (in collaboration with teammates and in competition with opponents).

Activities
Our tool for measuring and modeling human decision making is a probabilistic and dynamic card game called TRACS. Our methods include laboratory experiments (to get data), mathematical analyses (to build models) and computer simulations (to test models). Our products are scientific papers that report data, propose models and apply the models to command and control problems.

Impacts
Our research is developing computational models that can explain and predict human decision making. Our results will be used to predict human performance (strengths and bounds), and thereby guide the design of advanced decision support systems. Our results may also be useful in efforts to simulate human behavior for system evaluations (using simulated operators) and operator training (using simulated teammates).

Mixed-Initiative Control of Automa-teams (MICA)

Christopher L. Johnson, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
Currently, the control of unmanned vehicles requires at least one, and often multiple human operators per vehicle. However, new technologies have stimulated new concepts in military operations. Future visions involve large numbers of unmanned vehicles operating semi-autonomously, with small numbers of human operators supervising. Transforming these visions into reality will entail many challenges in autonomous and human supervisory control.

Objectives
The mission of the MICA program is to enable multi-level planning, assessment, and control of distributed, large-scale teams of semi-autonomous forces with collective objectives. MICA will develop the theory, algorithms, software, modeling and simulation technologies to support this control through the hierarchical application of systems and control theory. The human operator will remain integrated as a critical system component.

Activities
MITRE is supporting MICA program management by providing expertise on human-centered design and supervisory control issues involved in controlling autonomous teams. Towards this goal, MITRE is investigating the roles of humans in mixed-initiative control systems, techniques for modeling and evaluating human performance, and design principles, which assure that humans remain in optimal control of highly automated environments.

Impacts
Solutions to the MICA problem have the potential to revolutionize future military operations, expanding resources while freeing human personnel from dull, dangerous, and costly tasks. Programs where MICA has direct relevance include Future Combat Systems and Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles. Solutions would be applicable across multiple tasks-intelligence, combat, search and rescue-and multiple areas of operation-air, land, water, and space.

Operational Complexity Indicators for TFM Decision Support

Anthony Masalonis, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
The measure of sector volume currently used for operational decision support in traffic flow management (TFM), peak instantaneous aircraft count, does not reflect the duration for which the peak load is sustained. In addition, the same flight count can represent a vastly different level of controller workload, depending on weather and the complexity of the traffic mix and flows.

Objectives
This project is designed to develop operationally meaningful, sensitive, and predictable measures of the traffic and weather patterns contributing to airspace complexity. A metric for real-time decision support is more useful if it is displayed in an accessible and intuitive fashion; therefore, the project's other goal is to recommend displays for presenting predicted complexity to the traffic management coordinator and other users.

Activities
Operational assessments with field personnel, and quantitative predictability and sensitivity assessment, are the primary tasks. These activities will help adapt, for real-time TFM decision support systems, previous research findings regarding the traffic and weather factors contributing to controller workload, and will inform the design of operationally useful interfaces for displaying appropriate combinations of the factors.

Impacts
Metrics and displays found useful may be further studied for eventual operational implementation to provide decision support beyond what is currently lent by peak count. Traffic metrics may suggest enhancements to the dichotomous NAS resource categorization used in post-analysis tools. Results and literature reviews will increase scientific understanding of how traffic and weather impact controller workload and NAS performance.

Surface Safety

Sheila Gallegos, Principal Investigator

Washington only

Problem
Runway incursions remain one of the FAA Administrator's Top 5 priority items. Multiple analyses related to number and type of incursions, causal factors, and both procedural and technology efforts to mitigate incursions have been undertaken. It is anticipated that if current trends continue, there will be about 65 category A and B events (major runway incursions as categorized by the FAA where there is a high risk of collision) in the next two years. The National Transportation Safety Board has raised concern over the use of three particular ATC procedures, identifying them as high risk for leading to runway incursions.

Objectives
The objective of the effort is to analyze the use of three operational procedures and collaboratively with NASA Ames Future Flight Central identify modifications to the procedures that reduce their runway incursion risk. The three procedures are: Taxi To [also known as 91.129(i)], Taxi into Position and Hold and Multiple Landing Clearance. This project seeks to forge a collaborative framework with NASA Ames as well as provide an unbiased mechanism/perspective to help FAA reach internal consensus on these three contentious issues.

Activities
Major tasks include participating in a cross-FAA panel evaluating data from 1997-2000 runway incursions to establish a baseline of system performance where each of the three procedures was involved. A representative airport where each of the procedures is used frequently will be modeled to analyze capacity and workload implications of potential procedures modifications. After modeling, a core set of procedure modifications will be identified and taken to NASA Ames Future Flight Central for human-in-the-loop experimentation. Experimentation will involve local facility participation as well as workforce representation.

Impacts
The impact will be two-fold. First, this project supports MITRE's mission to serve the public interest by advancing the safety, effectiveness, and efficiency of aviation in the United States and around the world. Second, it also supports our goal to "facilitate good relationships within the community to ensure MITRE has impact."