| 2004 Technology
Symposium > Decision Support
Decision Support
This area focuses on cognitive-centered decision support applications
and new methods and tools for developing effective systems that support
decision-making. Emphasis is placed on decision-making in dynamically
changing real-time environments (occurring in a day or less). Research
in human decision-making to enable the development of better support systems
for the military or other sponsors is covered in this area. Also covered
is the demonstration of decision aids that advance the state of the art.
2020 Vision for Future NAS Operations
Christopher DeSenti, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington
Problems
Many diverse activities related to future vision and concepts are going on in the aviation community. Individual concepts are being proposed and explored; however, no one has yet taken an in-depth look at system-level implications. The aviation community needs to base any vision on a "bounded" range of alternatives. Objectives
The project seeks to understand the range of futures and develop a common understanding of the concepts across the aviation community. The objectives are to describe the principles, initiatives, and integrated set of concepts that move us along a beneficial path considering the range of futures. Success will depend on communicating the idea that an integrated set of future concepts is distinctly more valuable than the sum of its parts. Activities
Work will focus on refining concepts to collaboratively identify issues and communicate ideas, and on scrutinizing underlying assumptions. Leveraging MITRE's modeling capabilities will provide an assessment of the concepts. The resulting refinements will feed the building of interactive prototypes in MITRE's air traffic management laboratory. These will be used to visualize and communicate the concepts and to help move toward consensus among diverse stakeholders. Impact
The project is intended to help build consensus on the right set of aviation initiatives for the future. This work will support industry-wide efforts to define and understand future NAS concepts of operations, and help to determine appropriate areas of focus for research and transition planning for long-term NAS concepts of operation.
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Agile Transportation for the 21st Century (AT21)
Stu Draper, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington
Problems
USTRANSCOM's mission requires it to determine "optimum use of transportation modes, considering transportation market conditions, the impact on preparedness for war, and costs" and to "task the components to apply capabilities against the requirements." USTRANSCOM has not fully achieved the capability to optimize mode determination and synchronize its service components because of system complexity and lack of collaboration tools. Objectives
The focus of AT21 is on supply chain execution and customer relationship management. These capabilities enhance USTRANSCOM's C2 structures and provide decision-making tools that allow USTRANSCOM and its components to manage the Defense Transportation System (DTS) more efficiently and cost effectively. AT21 provides collaboration and optimization tools that enable a virtual DTS data environment and a scheduling "engine." Activities
USTRANSCOM partners with the Defense Information Systems Agency on AT21; the deputy under secretary of defense for advanced systems and concepts and the AITS JPO were founding partners. AT21 encompasses three functional areas: process control; collaboration; and optimization. The program regularly transitions adopted commercial-off-the-shelf tools. It will examine internal business processes and drive changes to increase the repeatability, reliability, and overall effectiveness of the DTS. Impact
AT21 will drive USTRANSCOM's ability to synchronize DTS operations. With optimization, collaborative visualization, and controlled processes for decision-making, AT21 will increase productivity and efficiency of military operations by improving transportation support -- synchronizing every echelon of the DTS -- leading to better service to the supported regional combatant commanders and other customers, including FEMA and humanitarian relief agencies.
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Analysis Support to Predictive Battlespace Awareness
Steve Frey, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
Operational modeling and analysis was performed in prior research on the subject of predictive battlespace awareness (PBA). Results indicated a wide range of development opportunities. The most critical need is for analytic tools to suppport tracking information and predicting future enemy actions. This is a complex type of analysis and not easily supportable by a single "tool" or system. Objectives
This project seeks to establish a PBA analysis framework, determine the "ground truth" for predictive analysis capabilities through experimentation, and contribute to furthering the state of the art for the various components of the framework. Results from experimentation will be compiled into recommendations on "way ahead" planning and investment strategies for achieving PBA. Activities
First, we will identify the activities and data sets applicable to predictive analysis as depicted in the PBA operational process and executable models. Next, we will identify capabilities and components that would support those operations together in a technical framework. Finally, we would investigate and experiment with applicable COTS, GOTS, and R&D efforts and evaluate them against this framework. Impact
The research will result in a structured approach to developing predictive analysis systems and an investment strategy. This activity is relevant to the USAF's ongoing PBA definition. In addition, we intend to have a continuing experimental facility and knowledge base to support further research and experimentation opportunities in the areas of integrated intelligence and operations.
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Applying User Models to Improve Team Decision Making
Brad Goodman, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
People who may not always work together must sometimes meet to solve important and possibly time-critical problems. MITRE's sponsors are rapidly accepting computer-supported collaborative work environments as a medium to bring people together to discuss such problems. The participants share information, insight, and advice. The team decision-making structure afforded by collaborative environments, however, does not necessarily encourage productive participation. Objectives
This project will develop models of users of collaborative environments to promote common situation awareness and understanding that can lead to successful collaborative decision making. The user models help monitor the quality of group interaction in pursuit of a solution to a mutual problem. These user models move with users and persist from session to session, group to group. Activities
We will develop an intelligent steward agent to guide team members through collaborative decision making. We will analyze meeting corpora from the research community to determine characteristics of decision-making dialogues, and will conduct controlled studies to evaluate collaborative activities and highlight collaborative behavior. We will track topics and stages of decision making and formulate user models as meetings proceed. Impact
Many MITRE sponsors use collaborative technology to bring experts together to make decisions. The development of criteria to help in the selection of team members and of techniques to guide teams towards consensus can lead to more cohesive teams, improved decisions, and enhanced knowledge sharing. The proposed research will provide a more effective foundation for sharing expertise in collaborative environments.
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Counter-Deception Decision Support
Frank Stech, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington
Problems
Denial and deception aim to disrupt an adversary's ability to "observe, orient, and decide," and to induce inaccurate impressions about friendly capabilities or intentions, causing the adversary to apply intelligence collection assets inappropriately, or fail to employ capabilities to best advantage. While the need for counter-deception (CD) is recognized, proposed solutions make little or no use of the psychology of deception and decision-making. Objectives
We will develop a decision framework based on existing research on the psychology of deception, and integrate the framework with belief modeling tools to create a CD decision support system for intelligence analysts. Our hypothesis is that the psychology of decision-making and deception can be combined with existing belief management and planning technology to produce a CD decision support system. Activities
In the Modeling phase we will construct a psychological framework of deception based on a deception taxonomy and deception cognitive model. In the Development phase we will develop tools for generating deception hypotheses and assessing the evidence of deceptions. The result will be a computational system that helps analysts to recognize potential deception moves, evaluate evidence, identify probable deceptions, and de-bias estimates. The Assessment phase will test the hypothesis through experiments with intelligence analysts. Impact
Research in CD will position MITRE to assist in several intelligence community initiatives. The research will position MITRE to develop systems to address several of our sponsor's identified "hard problems." It will also augment the Information Operations Planning Tool ACTD with deception planning aids.
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Data Link-Supported Low Cost Airspace Alerting and Avoiding System
Todd Stock, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington
Problems
Since 9/11, temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) have resulted in thousands of violations or warnings issued to pilots. These incidents have led to hundreds of interceptions by government aircraft, with a cost in the hundreds of millions of dollars in both direct and indirect charges to the DoD, FAA, and state and local law enforcement agencies to investigate and adjudicate each incident. Objectives
This project will develop and demonstrate a prototype low-cost airspace alerting and avoidance system to alert pilots to impending violation of restricted or prohibited airspace (e.g., TFRs), thereby reducing violations and interceptions associated with these areas of restricted airspace. Activities
We will develop prototype systems, algorithms, and software to alert pilots to impending violations of restricted airspace, and integrate low- or moderate-cost data link systems with the prototype system to provide in-flight updating. We will also develop a licensable package to transfer technology to developers. Impact
The technology will reduce the number and severity of restricted area violations. Adoption of this technology will significantly reduce the potential for loss of life or property as a result of an inadvertent TFR violation, and support FAA, DoD, and Transportation Security Administration goals by reducing the number and related costs of violations.
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Flight Inspection via Unpiloted Aerial Vehicles
Michael Cramer, Principal Investigator
Location(s):
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Improving Time-Sensitive Team Decision-Making
Lindsley Boiney, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
Given the progress made on system interoperability and machine-to-machine data transmission, C2 operator teams can shift more of their attention from routine data manipulation to making judgment calls and critical decisions. Unfortunately, systems often incompletely support team information sharing, as evidenced in real-world operations by teams struggling to make decisions quickly, accurately, and confidently. Objectives
Many time-sensitive C2 decisions must be made collaboratively. We will apply cognitive science techniques to better understand the team decision-making process in these environments. Key goals are to reduce operators cognitive load, confusion, and stress, thereby improving collaboration, shared situation awareness, and the timeliness and accuracy of critical decisions. Activities
We will observe operator teams performing time-sensitive C2 and identify points of confusion, delay, or potential error. Subsequent analyses will pinpoint sources of these difficulties, generate recommendations for system and/or team process modifications, and build scenarios to experimentally validate the impact of proposed modifications on performance. We will develop a group cognitive model and share insights on observing/analyzing C2 team decision-making. Impact
Both the need for collaboration and the amount of information that must be processed are increasing. New systems abound, yet human decision-making is often the limiting factor in overall performance. Research exploring operational decision-making, particularly in team contexts, is critical to improving command and control. It can reduce not only timelines, but also operator stress, cognitive load, confusion, and decision errors.
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Indications and Warning (I&W) for Countering Terrorism
Tom Carroll, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
The I&W community today relies on judgment and experience to identify threats. Watch centers are always "ON," with little time to reflect, test alternate hypotheses, or review processes, procedures, and methods. Once threats are identified, prioritization is a judgment call. Vestiges of Cold War I&W remain. Open source information is undervalued and not well understood, preventing analysts from taking advantage of completely new forms of analyses. Objectives
Our objective is to have significant impact on directly funded projects at DIA, the combatant commands, OSD C3I, and other elements of the intelligence community (IC). We would also like to contribute to efforts in the law enforcement arena and provide threat identification for MITRE initiatives on homeland security. Activities
We will assess operational I&W processes and methods currently employed in the IC; propose a universal model for terrorist assault, ambush, raid, and precision destruction operations; and validate the model through retrospective and predictive analysis. We will also examine and implement best analytical methods for threat assessment and risk measurement and develop a prototype that supports experimentation. Impact
As a result of current deficiencies, the public views the IC as either failing to provide warning (9/11) or overreacting to all types of threats without prioritizing them (e.g., crop dusting planes, banks in the northeast, malls, California bridges, theme parks, etc.). We seek to improve the I&W processes used by the IC and potentially those used by law enforcement.
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Lightweight Collaborative Whiteboard
Peter Firey, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
The DoD does not have a useful, reliable whiteboard application. Furthermore, mission-specific services and communication environments are too diverse for current approaches in delivering whiteboard services. For example, NetMeeting, the Defense Collaboration Tool Suite whiteboard service, fails during intermittent communication loss, lacks user markup identification, and does not offer object-level access control. Objectives
We will develop a lightweight browser-targeted whiteboard based on Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG) and industry Web service technologies to support interactive services and insertion of a collaboration capability into virtually any application. We will implement and assess the functional impact of a service oriented architecture in several environments, and extend interoperability to access controlled overlays from other services across organizational boundaries. Activities
We will develop a lightweight SVG whiteboard and measure technical limitations including scalability, accuracy, and concurrency. We will also evaluate user effectiveness in disruptive network environments, update and add functional complexity to exploit overlay sharing among geospatially aware services, incorporate role-based access control across organizational boundaries, investigate alternative mechanisms for browser notification, and adjust for mobile devices. Impact
This work will enable deployed Army units to collaborate with command and subject matter experts across unreliable communications with candidate next generation net-centric enterprise architecture/services through examples of cooperative Web services. It will also influence industry and improve DoD collaboration interoperability.
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Logical Expansion of Arrival and Departures to Enhance RNP (LEADER)
Satish Mohleji, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington
Problems
Controllers use radar vectoring not only to separate aircraft, but also to guide them in terminal maneuvering areas. These ad hoc path changes make it difficult to predict schedules accurately. The airlines need route repeatability to improve schedule predictability, while the controllers require procedures involving less workload to smoothly merge and separate aircraft with varying equipage. Objectives
This research will address (1) how to develop terminal route designs to ensure that full airport capacity and efficiency benefits are achieved and that the gains from en route improvements are not lost; (2) how to deal with future unscheduled demand; and (3) how to improve schedule predictability at different stages of flight. Activities
We will develop a human-in-the-loop simulation prototype capability. Tasks include designing Required Navigational Performance (RNP) routes with appropriate altitude and speed requirements at specified waypoints based on a wide range of aircraft navigation capabilities, developing arrival/departure traffic flow planning algorithms considering wake vortex-based separations, and demonstrating speed control processes to deal with flight deviations without moving aircraft off the planned routes. Impact
There is currently no activity in the FAA's plans to develop a decision support system (DSS) for flight management in the terminal area. This project will design and potentially implement a terminal DSS for current and future RNP-based flight planning and execution from gate to gate.
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Mental Models in Naturalistic Decision Making
Kevin Burns, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
System engineering efforts are often based on informal and inadequate models of how, psychologically speaking, people make decisions, and what, computationally speaking, people need to make better decisions. MITRE and its sponsors need computational models of cognitive processes to advance the design of information systems in command and control applications. Objectives
Objectives
This research project will develop computational models of the cognitive processes that underlie human decision making in prototypical command and control tasks, such as "risk assessment," "resource management," and "rational engagement." The computational models will employ a "bounded Bayesian" approach that treats human decision makers as rational (Bayesian) but limited (bounded) by natural constraints. Activities
The research methods will include human experiments and agent simulations in a micro world that replicates cognitive challenges of the real world. The micro world is a card game called Poker TRACS, played with a special deck of two-sided cards to simulate the clue/truth (back/front) structure of incomplete information in practical problems of diagnosis and decision making. Impact
The research products will be computational models of human decision making and conceptual systems for automating and improving human decision making. These models and systems will be validated and evaluated in the lab (micro world) to establish a credible basis for improving practical systems in the field (real world).
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Modeling Complex Adaptive Behavior
Daniel Venese, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington
Problems
Border screening is a highly constrained problem with many unknowns regarding the threat and opposition tactics. There is a large volume of traffic with relatively few that are suspect out of the total population--that is, the needle in the haystack problem. Objectives
The objectives are to gain a deep understanding of factors affecting border security operations, identify possibly novel adversarial tactics, and demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale, agent-based simulations with adaptive behavior.
Activities
The plan is to model a hypothetical homeland security domain with the following characteristics: Monte Carlo type simulation, long simulated duration, reinforcement learning, multiple strategies, randomization, and emergent behavior. Both offense and defense will be subject to a cost-based model that will govern operations. Impact
The results expected from this research are an understanding of the effectiveness of various tactics and strategies, and insight into innovative and possibly unexpected offensive strategies. The simulation will also provide guidance on tradeoffs to optimize performance, enterprise resource allocation and tradeoffs for investment decisions, and matching defensive operations to counter opposition tactics.
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Nonlinear Visualization Techniques
David deMoulpied, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
Warfighters and other situationally oriented information consumers constantly face situations that require immediate identification of essential information within a large information space. Recent advances in hardware and network data access exacerbate this information overload problem. While data processing and data access continue to progress rapidly, real-time visualization techniques have not evolved to keep pace with this massive influx of data. Objectives
This project will investigate nonlinear techniques for visualization of graphical data, with specific emphasis on semantic lensing strategies. Evaluation of, and experimentation with, new visualization techniques will facilitate understanding of their effectiveness in aiding decision making under high-stress and high-workload conditions. Activities
Research into a selection of nonlinear visualization techniques and their contextual effectiveness will be used to define an experimentation plan. This experiment will enable evaluation of semantic lensing techniques and their effectiveness compared to traditional visualization techniques for a variety of domains, including track-based air defense, homeland security, combat support, and netted sensors. Impact
This effort will advance nascent research in nonlinear visualization techniques for the military domain by determining whether using these techniques enables faster decision making by reducing the need to change foci in a high-stress and high-workload environment. We will determine whether patterns and relationships within data can more easily be seen through nonlinear visualization techniques, thereby enabling better informed decision-making.
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Perceptive Assistive Agents in Team Spaces
Lisa Harper, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
The use of next generation interface technologies to facilitate human-human collaboration and human-computer interaction has tremendous potential for enhancing team interaction. However, new devices and technologies cannot be inserted successfully unless they are adapted to the dynamics of the group's structure and interactions. Furthermore, the insertion of any particular technology may have unanticipated and unintended consequences. Objectives
We focus on the ability of assistive agents to monitor, access, and manipulate elements of the physical context. Our hypothesis is that we can enhance the interactions of teams and performance in both local and remote groups by using perceptive personal agents and team space agents that mediate interactions between humans and the collaboration environment. Activities
We will develop a sensor-based environment and an embodied assistive agent that can access, monitor, and change the physical environment. We will perform signal processing to improve audio quality and speech recognition by accessing and merging information across a network of microphones, thereby enhancing a sense of "near presence" among remote participants. Impact
By leveraging our own operational mission and corporate expertise, we have a tremendous opportunity to study real user populations over an extended period of time in such a way to inform usability issues critical to related C3I environments and to Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act.
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Probabilistic Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Decision Support
Craig Wanke, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington
Problems
Traffic flow management (TFM) decisions are based on imperfect predictions of demand; however, prediction uncertainty is not explicitly factored into the decision-making process. In the current Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS), demand predictions are presented as "truth," even though traffic managers are aware of the uncertainty around them. This can result in unnecessary actions and conservative decisions. Objectives
Our objective is to explore ways to manage the impact of uncertain demand predictions on TFM decision making. To do this, we must quantify the uncertainty present in the demand predictions used in current TFM operations, and develop candidate visualization techniques and decision-analysis methods for improving decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Activities
This project will quantify uncertainties in TFM demand prediction, develop uncertainty models for decision analysis and human factors studies, apply decision analysis methods to develop decision heuristics, and refine techniques for presenting uncertain information in automated and manual settings. This will assist users in making decisions that produce best expected value outcomes in a probabilistic sense. Impact
The results of this work will be useful in improving present-day TFM decision making, in improving the utility of TFM decision support tools currently being developed in the MITRE FAA work program, and in developing prediction performance requirements for future TFM decision support systems. The uncertainty models developed will also be applicable to a wide variety of other MITRE projects.
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Standardizing and Streamlining the Certification of Complex Machine-Human Applications
Andrew Zeitlin, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington
Problems
The FAA certification process is well established for aircraft systems. As new concepts and technologies are introduced to the flight deck, proving the safety of operations will be challenging. In addition to the traditional measures of assessing equipment performance, a more developed assessment of the human element is required. Moreover, the human must deal with interactions among multiple systems. Objectives
We will develop a model for dealing with the complexities of those new aviation applications where interactions between humans and systems predominate. We will develop a template to streamline the certification process for such uses, and therefore expedite fielding of new technologies and applications. This will enable the community to achieve their benefits sooner. Activities
We will identify candidate applications containing a suitable mixture of technical and human functions, whose complexity would not be adequately treated by conventional certification methods. We will analyze the functions within each application, construct a fault tree, and allocate risk for various hazards. A laboratory demonstration will show the risk mitigations. Impact
This work will show regulatory personnel and industry applicants a path through the certification process for new uses that are currently found intractable. New technologies and aviation applications could be approved and provide benefits earlier.
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Structured Argumentation
Brant Cheikes, Principal Investigator
Location(s): Washington and Bedford
Problems
The foundation of a sound judgment is a carefully prepared argument, grounded on evidence and supported by chains of sound reasoning. Backed by DARPA, information technology developers have been creating so-called structured argumentation tools focused on the intelligence mission. While these tools appear to have great potential to improve analytic judgments, there is no hard evidence yet supporting this conclusion. Objectives
This project aims to rigorously evaluate the costs and benefits of employing structured argumentation tools and methods, and in particular, to develop and test argumentation methods that demonstrably improve the quality of analytic judgments. Activities
Our approach will be to develop a program of empirical research -- experiments using experienced analysts both as subject-matter experts and as test subjects. Experiments will be based on short, realistic analysis problems. The first year will investigate the effects of explicit argument structuring on analytic products and processes. The second year will investigate the effects on analytic judgments. Impact
Our results will be of two kinds: technical papers that help our sponsors decide whether the benefits of structured argumentation methods significantly outweigh the costs, and guidance to the vendor community concerning the design of effective argumentation tools. In the absence of these results, sponsor decisions regarding argumentation technology will continue to be informed by anecdotal opinion and subjective evidence.
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