Application of Cognitive Agents to NAS Models and Real-Time Simulations Steven Estes, Principal Investigator Problems:
MITRE is often asked to determine the impacts that new technologies may have on the NAS. While metric-based analysis can resolve many such questions, cognitive agents embedded in system models and real-time simulations must ultimately be used to answer what are essentially cognitive questions: specifically, how do new technologies affect controller/pilot workload, efficiency, and error rates?
Objectives:
To address these issues we will create a library of autonomous cognitive agents: representations of humans that interact with and react to the environment in the same way a human would. We will then implement these agents within NAS models or real-time simulations.
Activities:
In FY07 we will expand the simple proof-of concept-model we created in FY06 so that it can replicate some 95 percent of all air traffic controller behavior. We will test and calibrate the model using a series of validation exercises in which the model controls traffic in our en route simulation environment.
Impact:
Cognitive agents allow for macro-level system results based in part on micro-level cognitive data. These human-like agents permit us to predict, for example, if using enhanced delegated separation concepts can increase controller productivity to a point that allows controllers to handle additional sectors. Within real-time environments, cognitive agents can facilitate evaluations by acting as pilots, controllers, or traffic managers.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0099 Presentation [PDF]
Enhanced Future Air Traffic Timetable Estimator Jackie Kee, Principal Investigator Problems:
The Future Air Traffic Timetable Estimator (FATE) generates future daily timetables from origin-destination markets using forecasts of passengers based on local demographics and economies, and information on air carrier networks, fleet types, and flight schedules. As demand grows, we should better understand how forecasts will vary with differing assumptions about local economic growth and changes in demographics, airframe technology, and changing networks.
Objectives:
In 2006 we modified FATE to make it more modular and ported it to a new, more user-friendly interface. Our objectives in 2007 are to evaluate the impact of differing assumptions on the forecasts, incorporate the use of FATE in sponsored projects, and continue improving the quality of the economic models.
Activities:
Our modeling efforts will focus primarily on improving the models of passenger origin-destination and aircraft choice. We will develop testing and validation scenarios and obtain peer review of the model specifications and results. We will solicit input from the user community on which scenarios should be developed to gain better understanding of the impact of differing assumptions on the forecasts.
Impact:
FATE forecasts have been used in the FAA's Future Airport Capacity Task (FACT) and are being considered for various other analyses. The FATE team plans to work with the FAA's Office of Aviation Policy and Plans on supplementing the office's current forecasting methodologies.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0106 Presentation [PDF]
Globally Distributed ATC Simulation Environment Patti Liguori, Principal Investigator Problems:
The complexity of building the next generation air traffic management (ATM) system will require organizations to conduct collaborative human-in-the-loop experiments. Other than those defined by AviationSimNet(R), no standards exist for interconnecting distributed simulations in the ATM domain.
Objectives:
This work seeks to provide a community-defined infrastructure that enables and promotes sharing of simulation assets and the conduct of collaborative experiments. It builds upon proven standards to extend the reusable, extensible infrastructure and message set; and ensures that the efforts of the AviationSimNet community will benefit the FAA through reductions in the cost and time needed to move concepts to the field.
Activities:
Research organizations in the aviation community have defined and implemented the AviationSimNet standards to link their ATM laboratories over the public Internet. Working with the AviationSimNet Standards Working Group, we will extend the object model to include flight and weather data objects. We will continue to develop the AviationSimNet Collaborator, which aids in coordinating and running the simulation and analyzing simulation results.
Impact:
This work will enable new types of research across the global aviation community by providing opportunities to conduct real-time distributed aviation simulations. The standard, once mature, will be of value to non-aviation simulations as well.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0088 Presentation [PDF]
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