Advanced ADS-B Applications Anand Mundra, Principal Investigator Problems:
Introducing technologies into the NAS is a long process that has to show continuing benefit to the stakeholders. Future applications of ADS-B are needed to encourage equipage and to provide future benefits. Not enough attention is being given to developing applications that will help make a benefit case.
Objectives:
This project will identify promising ADS-B applications and demonstrate and evaluate at least one of them in a laboratory environment. In the course of this project, stakeholders will be involved to provide feedback and to form the basis of potential acceptance of the applications.
Activities:
In FY06 we identified two potential ADS-B applications that promise to improve airspace capacity in the event of poor weather. We will select one of these for detailed development, based on an analysis of feasibility in the mid term. Prototypes will be developed and then evaluated in the laboratory to provide data that would support deployment in the mid term.
Impact:
New ADS-B applications can improve airspace capacity. Applications we prototype will demonstrate the opportunities for users already implementing ADS-B to expand the system, and will contribute to generating a business case that convinces others to purchase this technology. This research will support the case for continued implementation of ADS-B by the FAA and help MITRE maintain leadership in the effort to introduce ADS-B worldwide.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0096 Presentation [PDF]
Air Traffic Planning in an Uncertain World Craig Wanke, Principal Investigator Problems:
Decisions about airspace congestion management are based on imperfect predictions of demand and capacity; however, prediction uncertainty is not explicitly factored into the decision-making process. Thus, solutions are large scale and conservative, leading to excess delay and workload.
Objectives:
Our objective is to factor uncertainty into decision making by (1) quantifying it, (2) developing and prototyping algorithms to solve congestion, and (3) demonstrating the benefits of the approach for typical congestion problems.
Activities:
Using the analysis and prototyping software developed in FY06, we will apply probabilistic decision-making techniques to operational-scale congestion problems. We will evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques and their potential benefits to system operations and airspace users. We will also extend uncertainty forecasting methods to airspace congestion in the presence of severe weather.
Impact:
Probabilistic congestion management has the potential to greatly improve the efficiency of air traffic flows, especially when faced with disruptive weather conditions. This project provides the analytical basis for a future probabilistic congestion management system, as outlined in plans developed by the FAA and the Joint Project Development Office (FAA, NASA, and industry participants).
Approved for Public Release: 07-0102 Presentation [PDF]
All-Weather Super Density Trajectory-Based Operations Edward Hahn, Principal Investigator Problems:
Traffic in the National Airspace System is expected to increase to the point where current operating paradigms cannot keep up with the demand on the ATC system. The Next Generation Air Transportation System refers to "super density" operations as accommodating higher densities of aircraft than are achievable today. This concept rests on reduced separations, new procedures, and enhanced air and ground capabilities.
Objectives:
This project will identify the overall integrated concept of operations for super density and the set of enhanced capabilities procedures needed to achieve it. A definition of super density operations must be developed that will address the operational challenges of meeting future capacity needs. The definition will reflect the needs of locations that are expected to experience capacity shortfalls.
Activities:
We will first identify the key metropolitan areas that are expected to require super density operations and determine a range of specific capacity improvement targets above the current system evolution. We will then identify the most promising set of capabilities and procedures to achieve super density and develop an integrated operational concept for super density operations.
Impact:
The work will provide the aviation community with a rational concept for future operations. Identification of a consensus-reasonable set of capabilities that meet projected traffic growth, with appropriate and realistic identification of research challenges, risks, and contingencies, would constitute success. Having MITRE's concept drive future FAA and Joint Planning and Development Office research and metro area strategies would signify even greater success.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0098 Presentation [PDF]
Attention Allocation in Dynamic Environments AAIDE Lindsley Boiney, Principal Investigator Problems:
Severe pressures on operator attention exist due to frequent task interruptions, changing priorities, multiple information sources, and collaboration needs. Current solutions (such as auditory alerts to incoming messages, or inter-operator cueing) fail to address interdependencies among tools, processes, and behaviors, resulting in undesirable consequences such as cognitive overload, attention tunneling, or ill-timed interruptions that detract from situational awareness and decision making.
Objectives:
This project will apply operator-in-the-loop experimentation to evaluate the impact of technology capabilities on operators' attention allocation. We will focus on technology to support bottom-up detection of emergent events in dynamic environments, which is currently accomplished largely by laborious monitoring of multiple information sources. We will develop and experimentally test decision support recommendations involving both process and technology.
Activities:
Key activities will include formalizing selected human attentional needs in dynamic environments, tailoring existing technology to address these needs, developing scenarios and conducting experiments to evaluate the impacts on operator attention allocation, and developing initial recommendations for technology and process.
Impact:
We will provide experimentally tested and evaluated prototype technology to improve operator attention allocation, a necessary condition for effective decision making in dynamic environments. Improved leveraging and distribution of human attention in dynamic environments will benefit sponsor areas such as AOC modernization, distributed operations, human supervisory control, emergency response teams, and air traffic management.
Approved for Public Release: 06-1085 Presentation [PDF]
Collaborative Decision Making for Net-Centric Warfare in TIme-Critical Situations Brad Goodman, Principal Investigator Problems:
Military forces are increasingly utilizing distributed environments to bring together experts for time-critical decision making in response to escalating threats. Observations at exercises documented difficulties in maintaining common situational awareness of the task and team process, coordination, and dynamics. Team members and how they typically respond may be unknown, which can lead to confusion, lack of trust, and delay.
Objectives:
This project will develop an augmented collaborative environment to support team decision making, focusing on team interaction during time-critical situations. The enhancements will promote common ground and tightly coupled coordination that can lead to better shared situation awareness and understanding and improved decision making. The improvements will be evaluated in an experimental setting.
Activities:
The initial focus will be to select group progress indicators and incorporate them into a collaborative decision-making environment. We will conduct a study to determine their effectiveness. In particular, we will build visualizations of indicators that reveal key characteristics of communication, team dynamics, and team processes, develop classifiers to detect problematic team dynamics and process, and evaluate the enhanced environment.
Impact:
Military forces increasingly rely on collaborative technology and would profit from better support from the technology. The development of criteria and techniques to guide teams toward consensus can lead to more cohesive teams, improved decisions, and enhanced knowledge sharing. A new and more effective foundation for sharing expertise in collaborative environments can benefit the military as NCW becomes more commonplace.
Approved for Public Release: 06-1464 Presentation [PDF]
Explanation-Based Decision Making Brant Cheikes, Principal Investigator Problems:
Research in human judgment and decision-making shows that novices and domain experts alike make a variety of predictable mistakes in forming assessments, estimates, and predictions. Failures in judgment can be enormously costly in both wealth and lives. Yet systematic methods to help minimize such failures or reduce their impact are few, and are inconsistently taught or applied across the government.
Objectives:
This project will evaluate a new framework for the design of cognitive support tools, based on the claim that explanations are central to how people reason and decide. Driving this research is a vision of the role and purpose of cognitive support tools for analytic judgment, namely, that such tools should enable analysts to create external representations of decision problems.
Activities:
We will develop a prototype and conduct both formative and controlled experiments to evaluate explanation-based decision making (EBDM) as a guiding theory for cognitive support tools. We will implement EBDM principles in a software application to support the cognitive analytic processes of marshaling evidence and exploring hypotheses. We will conduct experiments to measure improvements in hypothesis-testing behavior.
Impact:
This research will deepen MITRE's understanding of the core cognitive processes that drive decision making, and enable us to articulate technical requirements for cognitive support tools for analysis and decision making. This work will position us to advise the government knowledgeably on current and future technology investments in this area.
Approved for Public Release: 06-0012 Presentation [PDF]
Geospatial Visualization for the IRS Kathleen Gallagher, Principal Investigator Problems:
The IRS has large volumes of disconnected data that the agency is now consolidating into information that can be used for decision-making. The IRS lacks full understanding of the ways that geospatial information system (GIS) technology can assist in data analysis. Examining GIS capabilities would represent the first step toward establishing GIS as a needed capability in the IRS environment.
Objectives:
The project seeks to gain insight into GIS capabilities that might be useful in developing IRS data management strategies. We will use an actual IRS business problem from the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) program to analyze the capabilities of GIS technology. The visualization technique will specifically identify future outreach activities based on prior year behaviors.
Activities:
We will execute the research in four phases: (1) identify and obtain data; (2) prepare, clean, and structure data; (3) develop a preliminary EITC demonstration; and (4) develop a final EITC demonstration and write the final report
Impact:
As the IRS consolidates its data it must begin to use the data as the basis of informed decision making. This project can use GIS analysis to examine how the IRS uses data; the results will help the organization gain insight into the continued value of data consolidation.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0349 Presentation [PDF]
Information Exploitation for Improved Situational Picture Neal Rothleder, Principal Investigator Problems:
The commanders in stability and support operations acknowledge that they are operating with incomplete information with respect to "background atmosphere" (protests, traffic, gas shortages, etc.). While unit reports capture this information, it is rarely summarized for commanders. They need a succinct situational picture that goes beyond event locations on a map and simple keyword retrieval.
Objectives:
The objectives are to investigate and prototype a method for automatically processing military reports in order to identify and extract information related to "background atmosphere" (protests, traffic, gas shortages, etc.). We will not only identify "where" and "when" these events occur, but also determine richer information such as "to what degree" (how severe), "in what context," and "how often."
Activities:
We will use natural language processing to extract deep semantic information from a variety of traditional Army reports (patrol reports, INTSUMs [intelligence summaries], SIGACTs [significant actions], etc.). Experiments will involve various event extraction techniques for building structured information from unstructured text reports. The effort will focus on a list of key "atmospheric" topics determined in collaboration with active duty Army personnel.
Impact:
Better situational awareness for the commander translates to more effective mission completion, with higher security. This capability gives commanders the overall context for their area of operations, provides better understanding of the current and historical atmosphere of the situation, and helps anticipate areas of potential instability. Commanders will be positioned to operate more securely and allocate their resources more effectively.
Approved for Public Release: 06-1434 Presentation [PDF]
Integrated Ops-Intel Team Sensemaking for Non-Traditional Warfare Frank Stech, Principal Investigator Problems:
Intelligence groups have had notorious failures, for example, 9/11's "failure of imagination" and the WMD "groupthink." Intelligence sharing, the complexity of problems, and operational needs mandate more analysis by groups comprising both intelligence and operational personnel. Intelligence reform and design of operational-intelligence teams are largely uninformed by the cognitive sociology of high-reliability organizations or organizational disasters.
Objectives:
We will apply High Reliability Theory and Normal Accident Theory to develop Cognitive Team Analysis (CTA) to identify factors associated with team sensemaking success and failures. We will develop CTA assessment measures for team sensemaking to leverage existing frameworks and assessment methods, develop field measures for team success, and adapt change management practices to re-design sensemaking environments and enterprises.
Activities:
We will define success measures for team sensemaking, determine sensemaking success factors, derive observational measures, assess both "captive" and "wild" teams, derive and apply change management steps to real teams, and assess sensemaking success. We will publish our results on "Sensemaking Metrics and Methods for Operations-Intelligence Teams," "Predicting Operations-Intelligence Success and Failure with Sensemaking Metrics," and "Changing Operations-Intelligence Failure to Success with Sensemaking Redesigns."
Impact:
This research develops a sensemaking engineering capability that links social-cognitive theory to MITRE intellectual capital in user interface design, cognitive engineering, team collaboration, and team decision-making. The framework and tools support re-design of sensemaking environments and are applicable to high-uncertainty environments of interest to many MITRE clients, e.g., operations and intelligence; air traffic control; medical surveillance; financial surveillance, and forensics.
Approved for Public Release: 06-1134 Presentation [PDF]
Net-Enabled TFM Scott Kell, Principal Investigator Problems:
To move from concepts to capabilities, the FAA will face the challenge of building an infrastructure using emerging net-centric information architecture technologies proposed for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. Current capabilities for sharing information across national airspace domain systems such as terminal, en route, and traffic flow management (TFM) are limited and stove-piped, and require proprietary interfaces.
Objectives:
We will define and begin to implement a TFM research prototype design using service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts focusing on proposed System Wide Information Management (SWIM) technologies. In parallel, we will continue research into advanced visualization technologies for TFM problem solving and decision support.
Activities:
We will determine the requirements for the next-generation TFM research platform, including SOA methodologies; survey emerging SOA technologies proposed for SWIM; and choose a technology framework for the new research platform. We will continue to explore advanced TFM visualization and interaction concepts and use SOA technologies to implement services that allow applications to access data and information.
Impact:
By exploring and developing a net-enabled framework of simulation and visualization capabilities for TFM using SWIM SOA technologies, MITRE will take important steps in building a knowledge base and will gain real-world experience in designing, developing, and implementing SOA technologies.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0100 Presentation [PDF]
Sense and Avoid for Small Unmanned Aircraft David Maroney, Principal Investigator Problems:
This research will address the question "Can small autonomous aircraft reliably detect and avoid collision (by reacting predictably) with objects in their path, both stationary and moving, that do not announce their position?" Many research efforts focus on one component or technology of this "sense-detect-avoid" question, but the combination has not been broadly addressed.
Objectives:
The project will investigate obstacle-sensing technologies, as well as avoidance methods and algorithms, to assemble unique combinations for comprehensively addressing the research question. We will analyze and map the breadth of sense-detect-avoid concepts and technology, scope appropriate alternatives for small unmanned aircraft and understand their viability by building, testing, and flying selected promising combinations through a progressive set of laboratory and field tests.
Activities:
We have framed the broad analysis of sensors and algorithms, and selected three combinations with which to experiment. We have developed and tested several airframe capabilities for carrying sensors for test and performed initial sense and detection tests on stationary objects. We will perform further tests of the current sensors, acquire additional sensors, and further develop detect-and-avoid algorithms.
Impact:
Direct impacts of this research include improving the collision avoidance capabilities of small UASs, while having them act predictably in civil/military encounters; improving survival of UASs and unintentional targets; and informing policy decisions on certification and regulation. Additionally, this research helps to support corporate goals of broad cross-center involvement in UAS research.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0103 Presentation [PDF]
Service Orchestration in the Ballistic Missile Defense System Context Alberto Andrade, Principal Investigator Problems:
Recent real-world events have underscored the need for a robust missile defense (MD) capability. As tensions rise, the MD operators will be asked to rapidly identify and integrate additional sources of information into their MD picture in an orderly and trusted fashion. This level of rapid integration is not currently feasible in U.S. MD command and control centers.
Objectives:
We will develop a framework for a ballistic MD system (BMDS) business process to enable Web service orchestration that satisfies BMDS mission operations. The framework will include "type interfaces" that support Web service and metadata identification and usage constraints and mechanisms for service orchestration. BMDS semantic information added to the service registry will improve decision making through enhanced service discovery, orchestration, and validation.
Activities:
We will build, deploy, and register BMDS Web services based upon BMDS business processes, and will describe and discover services that align with BMDS business components. We will orchestrate Web services based upon the BMDS business process framework and evaluate and validate service orchestrations using type interface constraints and improved semantic-based service discovery.
Impact:
This project will produce a validated type interface framework that BMDS elements and coalition partners can implement to support rapid integration. It will also generate a collection of Web services mapped to BMDS operational contexts, demonstrate ways to make service registries more robust through semantics, and recommend approaches to extend Web service standards to support mission-critical operations and service orchestration.
Approved for Public Release: 07-0312 Presentation [PDF]
Spatio-Temporal Analysis for Rapid Tasking (START) Erika Darling, Principal Investigator Problems:
Warfighters need to understand the effects when retasking ISR assets. The tools are either strictly visualizations that do not allow for what-if analyses or they are very complex and require extensive training. Therefore, warfighters are unable to easily explore what-if analyses to see the impacts on a larger scale when re-tasking an individual asset.
Objectives:
We are investigating intuitive spatio-temporal visualization techniques to improve the dynamic tasking of ISR assets as targets arise that were not in the collection plans. We will explore these visualization techniques for both warfighters in the ISR Division in the CAOC and in the UAS Operations Centers
Activities:
The cognitive task analyses with UAS mission coordinators and CAOC collection managers will result in a determination of the spatio-temporal visualization techniques. Those techniques will be prototyped for the purposes of running an experiment with UAS mission coordinators to determine the impacts on situation awareness and decision-making.
Impact:
The proven spatio-temporal analysis techniques will enable warfighters to understand the dynamic collection requests and task ISR assets with greater situation awareness and efficiency, resulting in improved target coverage.
Approved for Public Release: 06-1345 Presentation [PDF]
Tactical Multimedia Geo-Temporal Reporting (TAGR) Lisa Harper, Principal Investigator Problems:
Objectives:
Activities:
Impact:
Approved for Public Release: 07-0502 Presentation [PDF]
Visualization for Improved Situational Awareness Peter Firey, Principal Investigator Problems:
Transformational warfighting systems under development rely heavily on "enhanced situational awareness (SA)" to understand better than the opponent, focus effects, and avoid harm. How can warfighters know when they have SA, where they have it, and whether they have enough? How do they effectively share their SA and insights to contribute to a force wide SA?
Objectives:
We will integrate SA Overlay (SAO), simulation delivery, data mining, and statistical analysis tools and concepts into a comprehensive approach for battlespace understanding. We will work with sponsor warfighters and developers to support a rapid spiral pattern of research and development of truly useful SA visualization tools and then rapidly provide operationally useful SA visualization services to deployed warfighters.
Activities:
We will design and prototype a VISA experimental environment that integrates SAO and other SA visualization components into a networked environment that fits into existing and planned DOD C2 environments. We will try out the VISA ideas on representative warfighters and obtain feedback to improve the prototypes. We hope to conduct two spirals of prototype development, each followed by a user-supported experiment.
Impact:
The VISA technologies "at a glance." VISA should also enable commanders to convey their desires for SA generation and maintenance and allow ISR operators to better plan information collection for SA.
Approved for Public Release: 06-0248 Presentation [PDF]
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