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The United States air traffic control (ATC) system currently handles as many as 100,000 passengers per hour on 4,000 aircraft, or about 650 million passengers per year. The volume of air traffic is increasing at least as fast as the general economy. During the 10 years ending in 1998, the number of domestic passenger-kilometers flown increased at a 3.8 percent annual rate. Overseas the growth is even higher, increasing at a 6.3 percent average annual rate. Because the numbers of airports and runways are growing more slowly, and the volume of airspace is static, increased air traffic leads to increased congestion and its resulting delays. Increasing congestion is a global phenomenon, and air traffic analysts must be prepared to think and act globally to resolve near- and far-term problems. MITRE’s Center for Advanced Aviation Systems Development has been actively involved in ameliorating overseas ATC problems for a number of years. MITRE currently has active long-term projects with Egypt, Belgium, Japan, and Canada. Additionally, it is engaged in projects in Mexico, Latin America, Switzerland, and other regions. Within these areas, MITRE has worked on air traffic safety analysis through infrastructure evaluation, modernization, and project management support. MITRE’s international program has succeeded in providing substantial and tangible support in every region. For example, MITRE’s current work in Latin America focuses on configuring the airport and airspace regions for both Sao Paulo, Brazil and Buenos Aires, Argentina. Although the volume of air traffic is small relative to other regions of the world, these large metropolitan areas in Latin America have a substantial delay problem due to their airport and airspace configuration. MITRE is not only helping Brazil and Argentina identify and solve these specific problems, but is also teaching customers and local resources in the area about the use of modeling tools and the process of analysis so that they develop the ability to solve future problems themselves. We need to be continually evaluating air traffic volume, procedures, and growth both on a local and a global level. In many cases, problems are not unique to any one country, but are common across national boundaries. Solutions to air traffic problems in one region can often be implemented in other regions. Additionally, air traffic problems that appear to be local often affect distant airports either on the same continent or overseas. These factors combine to create a continuing need for a global view of air traffic and for access to tools that can analyze problems globally. The Detailed Policy Assessment Tool One such tool that has been used for international aviation analysis is a MITRE-built simulation model called the Detailed Policy Assessment Tool (DPAT). First developed as a MITRE-Sponsored Research project in fiscal 1994 and 1995, DPAT has subsequently been used in numerous national and international projects by MITRE staff. Its extensive use of data-driven software, its parallel computation for processing speed, and its avoidance of built-in ATC logic that could have made it region-specific enable its use internationally. DPAT’s main contribution to aviation analysis is its ability to predict and measure congestion-related delays. Congestion delays occur when system resources are overworked. Over 70 percent of the time this situation occurs during bad weather; the remaining delays occur for a variety of other reasons, including airline scheduling practices, equipment outages, unplanned incidents, and so forth. Because DPAT can be configured with data representing an historical situation, the current live situation from radar feeds, or a hypothetical future situation, it has great use in predicting traffic throughput and delays. DPAT is derived from an earlier MITRE product called National Airspace System Performance Analysis Capability (NASPAC), originally built as a domestic model only. There are no limits to the number of airports, flights, or en route airspace sectors it can simulate. As such, DPAT can be configured for different regions of the world. Already, DPAT has been used for analysis in the United States, East Asia, Latin America, Canada, and Egypt. Its versatility is enhanced through an interface that allows it to be accessible through Web browsers. The Use of DPAT for Global Air Traffic Evaluation One of the original DPAT studies concentrated on East Asian air traffic. The team produced air traffic forecasts for each year from 1995 (the study year) through 2015, looking at expected arrivals and departures from each airport as well as at the expected cities of origin and destination that are served by each flight. In developing the forecast, the team consulted with a variety of industry and government sources, fitting exponential models to predictions of regional Asian growth rates. Subsequently, the team ran DPAT with over 400 different configurations, constituting a sensitivity study of every combination of forecasted demand and capacity. Among other findings, the team isolated several Asian airports where delayed construction programs could result in severe delays that would propagate to surrounding airports. A second example of how DPAT can be used to evaluate global air traffic is an analysis of two Canadian airports, one in Montreal (Dorval) and the other in Toronto. In both cases, the Canadian aviation authority, NAV CANADA, requested an analysis of the expected reduction in delay due to the installation of new metering systems and procedures. The team considered up to six different aircraft metering technologies, and used DPAT to show how system delay would be affected as the capacities of the airports changed with the different metering technologies. Because DPAT contains a Web-based interface, the first of its kind when MITRE produced it in 1995, it is a useful system for demonstrating MITRE capabilities at conferences and to potential international sponsors. DPAT’s Web-based capabilities have been demonstrated during two different Asia-Pacific aerospace conferences on the West Coast, as well as during conferences and technical exchange meetings with the Egyptian government. Additionally, DPAT has been integrated with a Java-based flight visualization tool for use in graphically displaying current air traffic in Asia. Conclusions As the world economy continues to globalize and as worldwide air traffic continues to rise, it becomes increasingly important to maintain a global focus on air traffic management. Problems in distant regions can propagate and become local problems. Solutions to local problems can often become solutions to problems in distant regions. Economies of scale, efficient use of resources, and a common multinational understanding of complex problems all become powerful motivators for international collaboration and a global focus on problem solving—both generally and specifically for aviation. The contents of this material reflect the views of the author and/or the Director of the Center for Advanced Aviation Systems Development. Neither the Federal Aviation Administration nor the Department of Transportation makes any warranty or guarantee, or promise, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of the views expressed herein. For more information, please contact Fred Wieland using the employee directory. |
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