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If not addressed, the coming of the year 2000 will draw a dark and chaotic cybernetic shadow across our national and international computer-based society and the information technology on which it runs. Behind the apparent simplicity and innocence of the calendar year moving from 1999 to 2000 is hiding an amorphous, multi-tentacled menace that will affect most systems, including those critical to the banking world and our nation's defense. Devices for processing credit cards, which are used by merchants world-wide, cannot yet handle expiration dates beyond 1999. In early tests of our missile warning systems for date problems, a year 2000 glitch stopped it cold at the simulated time of 23:59:59 on December 31, 1999. While this glitch has been found and is being fixed, other problems still await our attention.
In the past, for efficiency of storage space, most hardware manufacturers and computer programmers omitted the first two digits of the year (i.e., century) when referring to dates in their programs. This programming convention created an environment that has become known as the Year 2000 (Y2K) problem. When these dates are built into an algorithm or decision process, problems will arise once the date rolls over from 1999 (99) to 2000 (00). They include the inability of sort routines to perform properly, the reversal of logic decisions, the inability of inventory systems to generate correct stock level reports, the inversion of security access rules, and the inability to properly validate intelligence data. There are three other date related issues that compound the problem:
The failure to process the dates properly from any of these causes could lead to catastrophic failures in our weapon systems. In addition, most systems deal with a range of dates both before and after the present date. This window of time is different for different types of systems and forces analysts to test many situations beyond the Year 2000. On top of all this, testing (either to find the problems or verify the fixes worked) is not easily accomplished with our normal test approaches and facilities. System engineers at MITRE are applying their expertise in systems and software to assist programs in moving through the five stages of dealing with the Y2K problem:
Military and air space management applications require additional care and consideration in meeting the Y2K problem due to their extensive interdependencies, older infrastructures, and use of legacy languages. Three informational briefings on the Y2K problem have been presented by MITRE to many different DOD and software industry public forums, including software technologies conferences and Year 2000 conferences. One of these briefings addresses the assessment of the effects of the Y2K problem; the second briefing discusses the appropriate roles for tools in addressing the Y2K problem; and the third discusses management and reporting ideas to help conduct Y2K resolution efforts. MITRE, in coordination with the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) and the Electronic Systems Center (ESC), has established a Y2K web-site to help organizations find the information they need to successfully address their own Y2K problem. The web site contains:
MITRE is also conducting research and experimentation to evaluate the technology issues relevant to analyzing and fixing Y2K problems in the Government's military and air space management systems. These directed research and risk mitigation efforts are investigating the potential payoff in extending and enhancing in-house and commercial reverse-engineering based Y2K analysis tools and the potential benefits of adjuncts to compilers that would allow for correct 2-digit date usage. The results from these proof-of- concept and risk mitigation investigations will be placed in the public domain for incorporation into commercially supported compilers and tools and will be disseminated through the MITRE Y2K Internet Web site. Due to the severe schedule constraints (the end date can not be changed) and budget limitations (no new monies are available to address this situation), senior management must be proactive in the oversight of these efforts. Senior management must also have current status information to allow them to make timely decisions to address any resource, priority, or trade-off questions as they surface. To this end, MITRE has developed a color coded "triage" scorecard specifically to: (1) enable the tracking of risk during the resolution process, (2) provide insight about resource status as resolution efforts proceed, and (3) to explicitly identify systems that are critical. The sample two entry scorecard shows both a critical and a non-critical system, each having various issues and risks. The majority of our sponsors are using this Scorecard (in conjunction with lower level, detailed status information) to assess both the systems being developed for end-users and the facilities used to develop, test, and support these systems. The Y2K Triage Scorecard is a management tool for providing periodic reports on the risk that Y2K problems will harm the missions of our DOD and FAA customers MITRE's Y2K web-site is recommended by the DOD's Software Technology Information Clearing House and the Defense Technology Information Center's (DTIC) Data & Analysis Center for Software (DACS) as the most comprehensive Y2K site. The site is their recommended starting point for people or organizations looking to become familiar with the Y2K problem. MITRE is also heavily quoted and referenced on the Y2K topic by the press, including Government Computer News, Federal Computer Week, AFCEA's SIGNAL Magazine, and CIO Magazine. While much of our guidance and suggestions appear on the Y2K web site, additional help and support is available directly for those customers that require it. For more information, please contact Robert A. Martin using the employee directory. |
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As the year 2000 approaches, the problems associated with the date roll-over
in command and control computer systems have become more apparent. The
practice of representing year dates with two digits brings into question
the stability and reliability of our national military and air space
management computer systems as well as the majority of other systems
our government and industries rely upon to carry out their work.