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The following Y2K material has been kept available by MITRE for historical purposes only and has not been updated unless noted.
Background Articles, Briefings, and Events on the Year 2000 Problem
The Y2K articles, briefings, and events described below are listed by date, with the newest information first. Select a title to bring you to its related summary description. For a complete listing of all downloadable material available from this Year 2000 website, please take a look at Y2K Material Available for Downloading.
ARTICLES AND PAPERS
On 13 and 14 May 1999, Mr. Thomas Backman and Dr. Bernard Lisker of MITRE presented a briefing on MITRE and the Year 2000 Problem at "The Y2K Effects on Transportation Systems in the Western Hemisphere Conference" in Mexico. The purpose of this briefing was to bring awareness to the Western Hemisphere countries of the need to adopt measures to cope with the challenges and potential impact of the Y2K problem in regional transportation systems. This briefing is available in both Spanish [PDF - 1.6MB] and English [PDF - 1.7MB].
On 4 May 1999, Robert Martin presented a talk on the types of actual Y2K problems that have been found and fixed, and what their collective impact would have been if they had been left alone. This briefing was intended to educate the audience on many of the efforts that are ongoing within both the DOD and the public sector, and where the Y2K bug is being eradicated. A discussion of the possible ripple-effects and the possible impacts they would have had if fixes had not been crafted and applied may help in understanding the magnitude and impact of those problems remaining to be discovered. This briefing is available in 3 separate pieces [1 of 3 PDF - 2MB], [2 of 3 PDF - 1MB], [3 of 3 PDF - 1.1MB].
On 17 March 1999, Robert Martin presented material on the Year 2000 issues with embedded systems to the Macroeconomic Advisors' 64th Quarterly Outlook Meeting held in New York City. This presentation was part of a panel discussion with speakers from the New York Federal Reserve, the Edison Electric Institute, the Securities Industry Association, the FAA, and Bell Atlantic. The meeting was attended by over 50 top economists and investment managers from many of the major brokerage firms, investment management firms, and non-financial corporations headquartered in New York. This presentation is available as either [PDF - 1.9MB].
On 4-5 March 1999, the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence (OASD (C3I)) in coordination with the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) hosted a Year 2000 (Y2K) Technical Conference in Arlington, VA. The conference was designed to be an information exchange on Y2K Technical Issues among DOD technology managers. IT leaders throughout OASD (C3I), DISA, and industry addressed topics and strategies for handling several key aspects of the Y2K problem. Major topics included: End-to-End Testing, Configuration Management, Operational Evaluations, Risk Management, and Contingency Planning. The MITRE briefings presented at the conference are as follows:
Year 2000 Workshop, prepared and presented by Robert A. Martin of MITRE, was given to the Senior Management and Operations Group at the Air Navigation Services of the Czech Republic on 23-24 September 1998. The presentations can be downloaded locally in the following sections:
These eight presentations incorporate material and updates that Robert developed over the preceding seven months. During that time period, Robert made numerous Year 2000 presentations to a variety of groups including: the Army Science Board; Joint Interoperability Conference at the Joint Interoperability Test Center; a satellite broadcast for SPMN; Air Traffic Management meetings and courses for Canada, Belgium, and the European nation; a Contingency Planning conference for the Banking Administration Institute; and various presentations to senior representatives from Canada, Poland, and Austria.
"Use of Bayesian Analysis for Year 2000 Confidence Assessment", prepared by Dennis Mangsen, Alan Skillicorn, and John Vitkevich, was given at the Annual International Test and Evaluation Association (ITEA) Conference in Albuquerque, New Mexico on 23 September 1998. The paper identifies the prior information required and dependency of the results on assumptions made.
A presentation and short paper entitled Year 2000 Confidence Assessment - A Bayesian Tutorial, prepared by John Vitkevich, describes an application of Bayes' theorem for assessing the confidence of surviving the Y2K computer date problem. Several key concepts in Bayesian analysis are introduced with geometrical diagrams to help clarify its potential application and improve understanding of the method. Bayesian confidence assessment can be applied at various points between now and the Y2K rollover. When a multi-cycle resolution approach is implemented, prior Y2K confidence estimates can be revised at the completion of each cycle to reflect the most recent results of error testing activities, to obtain improved posterior probability estimates of success. This presentation and paper are available in PDF and HTML format from the 1998 SWEE Conference Proceedings web page, or you can download the briefing locally as [PDF - 38K], and the paper as [PDF - 25K].
The methods described in the above Bayesian tutorial can be applied to real-world Y2K testing situations. Mr. Dennis Mangsen made a presentation on Real-World Use of Bayesian Analysis for Year 2000 Confidence Assessment at the MITRE Software Engineering and Economics Conference in April 1998. This paper and accompanying briefing are available in PDF and HTML format from the 1998 SWEE Conference Proceedings web page. No simple answer is given, but a quantitative technique is described, which might be useful to a decision maker for understanding what has been accomplished to date. The results of applying such a method depend upon the assumptions and data used in the analysis. The paper raises questions, such as "when are we done?" or "how much testing is enough?".
On 2 April 1998 at the SWEE's 98 Conference on Information Technology, Charles L. Hall presented a briefing on Beyond 2000. The focus of this presentation is on various Y2K technical and management problems and Systems Interface Issues. This presentation is available in HTML format on the SWEE Conference Procedings web page or you can download the briefing locally as [PDF - 85Kb].
On 5 February 1998 at Hanscom AFB, Capt. Chuck Shifflett, Mr. Robert Martin, Ms. Karen Rigopoulos, and 2Lt. Max McFarland presented a briefing on Year 2000: Are We Doomed? (available in [PDF - 738K]). This presentation focuses on the Y2K problem, how to solve the interface problem, how to solve the system problem, what ESC is doing, infrastructure, and what you need to do to resolve your Year 2000 problems.
On 23 January 1998 at the Intelligence Community Year 2000 Testing Workshop, held at CIA Headquarters, Mr. Robert Martin presented a briefing on The Testing Slant on the Different Types of Y2K Errors (available in [PDF - 900K]). This briefing focuses on defining the Where, When, and What of Testing for Y2K, including a discussion of the types of Year 2000 errors, where they are, when they could occur and what needs to be tested. The discussion then proceeds to cover the various solutions to Y2K problems as they impact the testing effort and approach.
Also on January 23rd at the Intelligence Community Year 2000 Testing Workshop, Mr. Robert Martin presented a briefing on Tools for Testing the Distributed Enterprise, Best Practices, and Lessons Learned (available in [PDF - 563K]). This briefing provides a short discussion on types of tools that can be used to test part of the distributed systems within your enterprise; specifically, PCs, spreadsheets, and database evaluation tools were discussed. The remainder of this second presentation focused on a series of Best Practices discussion and a short review of lessons learned from various Y2K efforts.
On 13-14 January 1998 at the ITW/AA NETWORK - SNDC2 SPO Year 2000 Working Group Meeting, held at Peterson AFB, CO, Mr. Robert Martin presented a briefing on Evaluating and Sharing Year 2000 COTS Compliance Information (available in [PDF - 463K]). This presentation focuses on dealing with commercial software for the Year 2000 and the various issues it presents and some suggestions on how to handle them. An earlier version of this presentation was given at the Joint Staff Year 2000 Working Group meeting in November 1997.
Also on January 13-14th, at the ITW/AA Working Group Meeting, Mr. Dennis Mangsen of MITRE Colorado Springs presented a briefing on Year 2000 Contingency Plans (available in [PDF - 38K]). This briefing addresses issues such as what is a contingency plan and why we need one, who is working the template and when will it be available, what timeframe do we need one, next steps to take, and conclusions. With only two years left before the turn of the century, the development of these contingency plans must begin immediately, with proper training soon to follow.
On 12 January 1998 at a Y2K symposium sponsored by the Software Program Managers Network at the Pentagon, Mr. Robert Martin presented The Practical Challgenge of Y2K (available in [PDF - 550K]). The theme of the symposium was "Industry Experience Solving the Y2K Problem." Bob's presentation led off the 3-hour event with a introduction and overview presentation on the scope, size, and extent of the problem.
On 18 November 1997, MITRE Year 2000 focal point Mr. Robert Martin presented this briefing at the Computer Security 24th Annual Conference and Exhibition in Washington D.C. The presentation describes the different ways that automation can be leveraged in dealing with the Year 2000 effort. All parts of the project team effort are discussed and automation support ideas are presented. The briefing is available in PDF format (2.5MB).
Dealing with Dates: Solutions for the Year 2000, an article by Robert Martin of MITRE, was the cover feature of the March 1997 issue of IEEE's Computer Magazine, and is available in PDF (163K) for downloading. An updated version of the article was provided to the Air Force's Software Technology Center at Hill AFB for its inclusion in the October 1997 issue of their newsletter "CrossTalk." This updated version is also available for downloading as PDF (263K).
The Year 2000 problem is the software problem of the twentieth century. This article first discusses the concepts, terminology, and individual aspects of a Y2K effort, then defines a process that an organization can use to address its own Y2K challenge in a forthright and level-headed manner.
Copyright 1997 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE.
On 16 October 1997, MITRE Year 2000 focal points Mr. Robert Martin and Ms. Barbara Wolfinger hosted the Year 2000 track at the International Electronic Commerce and CALS Expo in the Orlando, Orange County Convention Center. Mr. Martin's briefing entitled An Introduction to the Year 2000 Problems and Challenges (1.4MB) is available in PDF. Ms. Wolfinger's briefing entitled Year 2000 Impacts to our Infrastructures: PCs and Embedded Computers (188K) is also available in PDF.
On 11 August 1997, Mr. Robert A. Martin of MITRE presented a half-day seminar at the Computer Software and Application Conference (COMPSAC97) in Bethesda, Maryland. This seminar was intended for software professionals who are engaged in dealing with addressing systems that may become unreliable or non-functional when or calendar odometer rolls over. The concepts, terminology, and individual aspects of a Y2K effort were discussed and a process that an organization can use to address its own Y2K challenge was defined. Solutions, compliance definition, testing and costing were also addressed. The briefing Dealing with the Year 2000 Tutorial (2.1MB), and Handouts (149K), with a roadmap to on-line handouts and the Y2K Compliance Test Plan, are available in PDF. An outline of the briefing follows:
In addition to presenting the above briefing at the COMPSAC conference, Mr. Martin was a panel member and authored a panel discussion article entitled Year 2000 Compliance: A Discussion on Compliance Certification, which was published in COMPSAC '97: Proceedings of the 21st Annual International Computer Software & Applications Conference, August 13-15, 1997, pp. 283-285.
On 2 April 1997, Mr. John Vitkevich of MITRE's Economic and Decision Analysis Center presented Analyzing the Costs of System-of-Systems Year 2000 Problem Resolution at the 1997 MITRE Software Engineering & Economics Conference in McLean, Virginia. The briefing and paper describe a framework for analyzing and understanding the cost impacts associated with fixing the Year 2000 problem in complex systems-of-systems. In addition to bringing an engineering perspective to the unique aspects of system-of-systems costing, the presentation should be of interest to anyone who needs insights into Year 2000 economic issues for management and financial purposes. The briefing is available in PDF (188K). The paper is available in HTML, MS Word 6 (500K), PDF (175K).
The Year 2000 Problem was featured in MITRE's Advanced Technology Newsletter -- The EDGE -- in March 1997. This article gives a good general overview of the Year 2000 problem, and discusses the five stages you need to move through in dealing with the Y2K problem.
On 13 February 1997, Dr. Neal D. Hulkower of MITRE's Economic and Decision Analysis Center presented A Framework for Estimating the Cost of Fixing the Year 2000 Problem at the DODIIS Interoperability-97 Conference in San Diego. The briefing, coauthored by John Vitkevich shares lessons being learned from projects EDAC is supporting. The presentation should be of interest to anyone responsible for preparing detailed estimates of the cost of repairing Y2K problems on particularly complex system-of-systems. This briefing is available in and PDF (75K).
On 22 January 1997, Mr. Mark Doernhoefer from MITRE delivered a briefing entitled Your PC and the Year 2000 at the Y2K Interagency Committee held in the FAA Building, 10th Floor Conference Room, 800 Independence Avenue, Washington D.C. Mr. Doernhoefer's briefing emphasized the ways that the Year 2000 problem can manifest itself in our PCs, both standalone and networked. Mr. Doernhoefer also discussed the variety of approaches in resolving Year 2000 PC problems and the impacts of the different approaches, whether it be a manual fix, a software patch, or some form of BIOS upgrade. Specific guidance and precautions for testing for the presence of Year 2000 problems in PCs were also presented. Information about web sites containing help in resolving this type of Y2K problem was also presented. This PC-Y2K briefing is available for downloading in PDF (200K).
On 7 October 1996, Mr. Robert A. Martin delivered a briefing on Defense-Related Year 2000 Issues and How They Can Be Addressed at the 3rd Annual Education Foundation of the Data Processing Management Association Conference, held at the Vista Hotel in Washington, D.C. Mr. Martin's briefing emphasized the variety of types of ways that the Year 2000 problem can manifest itself, the need for consistent criteria and reporting on Year 2000 activities and status within an organization, and the need for strong and proactive management in planning, scoping, and directing Year 2000 efforts. Mr. Martin also discussed the variety of approaches in resolving Year 2000 difficulties and cautions that projects must evaluate the costs, risks, and impacts of the different approaches before settling on one that fits their resources, level of funding, and the critical nature of the systems being addressed. Simplistic edicts to expand all 2-digit dates to 4-digit dates are harmful and reckless, given the ripple-effect they produce on storage space, tuning, programs, and most importantly, interfacing with other systems. This DOD-Y2K for DPMA briefing is available for downloading in PDF (938K).
On 27 March 1996, Mr. Robert A. Martin of MITRE's Software Engineering Products and Practices Section delivered a Tools and Y2K Discussion Briefing at the Air Force-wide Year 2000 Conference, held by the AFC4A and hosted by HQ SSG at Gunter Annex, Maxwell AFB. Mr. Martin's Briefing emphasized the need for ongoing good systems management and maintenance, the tools available to support developing some (but not all) Year 2000 solutions, the need to attack the problem several different ways, and the percentage spread of Y2K efforts over the stages of discovery, correction, testing, and fielding. This Tools and Y2K Discussions briefing is available for downloading in PDF (800K).
On 10 January 1996, MITRE completed a quick assessment study of the problem at the 29 November 1995 Letter request of Anita Jones, the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E). This briefing contains the results of the study, including sections on background information, summary of the findings, statement of the Year 2000 problem, tools to assist in solving the problem, sizing and costing the problem, steps to take to solve the problem, and recommendations. An Executive Summary for this briefing is also available.
This MITRE Assessment Briefing was delivered by Mr. Thomas K. Backman, Associate Director of the Information Technologies Directorate at MITRE, and is available for downloading in (PDF) (~1.3 MB).
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