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The following Y2K material has been kept available by MITRE for historical purposes only and has not been updated unless noted.

MITRE - Y2K - Y2K Contingency Plan Guidelines
Y2K Contingency Plan Guidelines



INTRODUCTION

Although everyone is working diligently to ensure that a high percentage of Year 2000 (Y2K) and related problems will be resolved before their respective Time Event Horizons, we must anticipate that some things will be overlooked, ignored, or not completed on time. We also realize that there are things beyond our control that could affect us in the year 2000. One important way to be sufficiently prepared is through the development and application of well-defined and executable contingency plans.

As a first step, you should become familiar with the minimal activities that need to be addressed in developing a contingency plan by reading through our Y2K Contingency Management Plan Outline. Then take a look at Sample Content of a Contingency Plan which details the types of information to be included in each section of your plan. With less than a year left before the turn of the century, the development of these contingency plans must begin immediately, with proper training soon to follow. The objective of this guidance is to ensure that the following minimum requirements are considered when developing a contingency plan.

BACKGROUND ASSUMPTIONS

There will not be enough time and/or money to fix everything. As triage principles are applied, some low priority systems will not be fixed at all. Similarly, some medium priority systems may not be thoroughly tested. Finally, some mission critical systems may still have errors, even after thorough testing, just due to complexities and oversights.

Also, some solutions may not be available or work in time because they were overlooked, too complex, too costly, or implemented incorrectly. Further, it is impossible to ensure that all other organizations interfaced with externally have fixed their systems. Consequently, an organization's systems may be "infected" by bad data from other organizations and their systems.

Most organizations already have Contingency Plans for natural disasters and other types of contingencies. However, the difference for Year 2000 and related problems is that the potential widespread and simultaneous nature of failures is such that traditional backup or alternatives strategies may falter.

CONTINGENCIES AND REQUIRED PLANNING

There are two types of contingencies to be addressed by each Contingency Plan: Programmatic and Mission-oriented. See the figure below.

Figure 1. Two Types of Contingencies

The first type would necessitate workarounds to be used in advance of the earliest Time Event Horizon, such as to overcome a perceived lack of time to complete remediation. This is the first type of contingency planning requested by OMB in their 15 November 1997 Progress on Year 2000 Conversion Report. See the third underlined item under the "Government-wide Issues" section,"Planning for Contingencies." The second type, also requested, would necessitate steps to cope with the actual onset of operational problems at some Time Event Horizon. Each corresponding section of the Plan, Programmatic and Mission-oriented, has an appropriate focus of risk management, and both are integrated into a coherent, single Contingency Plan.

Contingency Plan Sections

The Programmatic Section details the plans for system remediation management, and is closely allied with what has been termed "triage" management. This section is prepared by systems developers, operators, and maintainers in consultation with users. It addresses the actions to be performed by systems developers, operators, or maintainers in advance of a foreseen Y2K related contingency. An example of this sort of contingency is when, say in late 1998, it is discovered that some previously overlooked code has serious problems and there is no time left, given its priority, to fully remediate all the problems.

On the other hand, the Mission-Oriented Section deals with operational risk management. This functional section is prepared by systems users in consultation with developers, operators, and maintainers. It addresses the actions to be performed by the users immediately before, during, and immediately after a Y2K related contingency. Examples of this sort of contingencies include power outages, system crashes, bad data, loss of communications, and the like.

The two sections must be closely coordinated. Relevant contingency information should be exchanged with system managers of those systems that interface with each system and also with all system users.

In addition, it is understood that there could be higher-level contingency plans aimed at permitting an organization to carry out its assigned missions in spite of any evolving Y2K problems among its systems and means of communication. For guidance and samples of this type of Organizational Contingency Plan for Year 2000, please see the August 1998 Year 2000 Computing Crisis: Business Continuity and Contingency Planning [GAO/AIMD-10.1.19 in PDF], Best Practices Chapter VI - Contingency Planning, and SSA's Year 2000 Business Continuity and Contingency Plan.

Additional Contingency Plan Considerations

The scope of the plans must be clearly stated, including expected contingency duration, for both Programmatic and Mission-oriented contingencies. Priorities must be carefully defined, established, and agreed to by all parties concerned. Early on, costs estimates to set up and implement the plans should be developed and considered for possible trade-offs. The responsibilities for developing and maintaining each Contingency Plan must be established, as well as time period between major reviews. Continued Contingency Plan maintenance will be tracked through each organization's validation process. The existence of an approved Contingency Plan is a requirement to be considered certified in many organizations. Finally, because of their importance, Contingency Plans should be dated, signed and promulgated at a high level within the organization.

The next sections provide details for the preparation of each type of Contingency -- Programmatic and Mission-oriented -- with Risk Management subsections for the latter, for each of three phases -- Planning, Execution, and Recovery -- with the last section being Recommendations.

PROGRAMMATIC CONTINGENCY PLANS

Programmatic Contingency Plans should be developed for each "mission critical" system, or group of functionally related systems, by Information Technology (IT) system managers, developers, and maintainers in consultation with regular users. In general, Programmatic Contingency Plans apply only to IT systems, such as mission and decision support systems, database and communications systems, and logistics and financial systems. Each Programmatic Contingency Plan deals with problems related to and/or resulting from any inability to remediate a system's Y2K performance in a timely fashion. The Plan should delineate Triage Criteria and procedures for applying triage. Finally there should be statements regarding the objectives and the intended duration of the Plan.

Programmatic Contingency Plans General Details

Precontingency (Planning Phase)

Evaluate potential hazards

Evaluate reliability of system's certification

Develop Triage Plans

Identification of dates of action for Programmatic contingencies

Evaluate potential failure modes of alternatives

Establish support agreements as required

Identify ways to preserve and protect system data

Establish methods to detect and correct corrupt data

Designate roles, responsibility, and authority of managers, maintainers, and developers

Identify emergency procedures to perform during contingency, set thresholds

Identify contingency recovery procedures for Programmatic contingencies

Establish and perform training program

Practice and test the Programmatic Contingency Plan

During Contingency (Execution Phase)

Postcontingency (Recovery Phase)

MISSION-ORIENTED CONTINGENCY PLANS

Mission-oriented (operational) Contingency Plans are developed by actual using organizations in consultation with IT developers, operators, and maintainers, based upon mission critical functions as decided upon by the organization. Mission-oriented (operational) Contingency Plans should consider both IT and non-IT equipment (i.e., infrastructure items), such as mission and decision support systems, database and communications systems, logistics and financial systems, industrial process control, heating and cooling, fire and security systems, etc. Considerations should also include plans for mission critical infrastructure items, systems, and suppliers.

Planners should apply Operational Risk Management analyses to identify the hazards, impacts, probabilities, and mitigation procedures, for Mission-oriented contingencies.

Be aware that mission-oriented (operational) Contingency Plans deal with continuing and completing missions in "worse case" scenarios. Finally there should be statements regarding the objectives and the intended duration of the Plan.

Mission-Oriented Contingency Plans General Details

Precontingency (Planning Phase)

List types of failures, their effects, and their likelihood

  1. Identification of the hazards to Life, Property, Environment, such as mission non-completion and/or failure, explosion, fire, chemical release, mechanical failure, etc.
  2. Identify mission critical functions as determined by the organization
  3. Identify systems supporting mission critical functions
  4. Assess probability of system failure due to Y2K problem

Develop matrix per four steps above to assess the likely impacts of system failures

Assign operational priorities per agreed-to definitions

Identify critical resources that may be affected

Set up Crisis Center

Consider alternatives

Designate roles, responsibility, and authority of user organization

Develop contingency identification procedures for mission-oriented contingencies

Consider potential security breaches

Identification of dates for mission-oriented contingencies

Establish and evaluate potential failure modes

Establish support agreements as required

Identify ways to preserve and protect system data

Identify general emergency alternative procedures to perform during contingency, set thresholds

Identify contingency recovery procedures for Mission-oriented contingencies

Establish and perform training program

Result of this phase is a set consisting of:

During Contingency (Execution Phase)

Postcontingency (Recovery Phase)

Mission-Oriented Contingency Plan Risk Management Details

Loss of AC Power

Loss of Environmental Controls

Breaches of Security

Interruptions of Internal Communications

Interruptions of External Communications

System Hang-up or Shutdown

Degradation of Performance

Irrational Data Presented to Users

Produces Results with Incorrect but, Acceptable Errors

Files Corrupted or "Lost"

Unreliable/Unpredictable Results

More.......

RECOMMENDATIONS

There are four recommendations, as detailed in the paragraphs below.

Distribution of Contingency Plan Guidance

This Contingency Plan Guidance Document should be included in each organization's Y2K Guidance or "Best Practices" Package.

Contingency Plan Development Recommendations

As stated earlier in the document, every organization should have a Contingency Plan. Also, every mission critical date cognizant system and process needs a Contingency Plan. Current plans can be updated and used if they meet the minimum requirements of this document, with the additional precaution of being vigilant against simultaneity of Y2K failures in backup and alternative systems.

Contingency Plan Emplacement Recommendations

The crucial importance of each Contingency Plan dictates that each receive a high-level date and signature, and official promulgation.

Contingency Plan Exercises, Where Feasible

It is very important to train operational personnel in the execution and test of the Plan; i.e., the "nuts and bolts" as much as possible. Otherwise, the likelihood of failures increases greatly in case of actual, but unprepared, execution of the Plan.