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Dynamic Red Queen Explains Patterns in Fatal Insurgent Attacks
March 2011
Neil Johnson, Physics Department, University of Miami
Spencer Carran, Biology Department, Mathematics Department, University of Miami
Joel Botner, Computer Science Department, University of Miami
Kyle Fontaine, International Studies Department, University of Miami
Nathan Laxague, Physics Department, University of Miami
Philip Nuetzel, International Studies Department, University of Miami
Jessica Turnley, Galisteo Consulting Group
Brian Tivnan, The MITRE Corporation, Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont
ABSTRACT
The Red Queen's notion "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place" has been applied within evolutionary biology, politics and economics. We find that a generalized version in which an adaptive Red Queen (e.g. insurgency) sporadically edges ahead of a Blue King (e.g. military), explains the progress curves for fatal insurgent attacks against the coalition military within individual provinces in Afghanistan and Iraq. Remarkably regular mathematical relations emerge which suggest a prediction for the timing of the n'th future fatal day, and provide a common framework for understanding how insurgents fight in different regions. Our findings are consistent with a Darwinian selection hypothesis which favors a weak species which can adapt rapidly, and establish an unexpected conceptual connection to Physics through correlated walks.
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