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Examining Arrival Time Predictability in the NAS Using Monte Carlo Methods
February 2012
Seli Agbolosu-Amison, Ph.D. member AIAA, The MITRE Corporation
David C. Millner, The MITRE Corporation
Billy Baden Jr., The MITRE Corporation
Gareth O. Coville, The MITRE Corporation
Stéphane Mondoloni, Ph.D. Associate Fellow AIAA, The MITRE Corporation
ABSTRACT
There are various mechanisms that produce the arrival time uncertainty. Some of these, such as the variability in airport capacity due to airport configuration and meteorological conditions and the variability associated with positioning in a growing or decaying queue, are considered in fast-time simulations of NAS-wide performance. This paper looks at the additional incorporation of variations that can occur in the times of three processes: pushback-from-gate, taxi-out to the departure queue, and taxi-in to gate (herein called the GTT processes).
Additional Search Keywords
air flight predictability, airport arrival predictions, Monte Carlo methods, Next Generation Air Transportation Systems, NextGen, airport capacity, systemwideModeler, flight delay costs
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