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Asymmetric Wargaming: Toward A Game Theoretic Perspective
October 2000
Gregory M. Whittaker, The MITRE Corporation
ABSTRACT
As we enter the 21st century the art and practice of warfare is
radically changing. The US has emerged as the dominant
conventional military power only to find its adversaries working
their way out of the box. The Defense Advanced Research
Agency Information Systems Office (DARPA/ISO) which is
seeking new approaches to asymmetric threat modeling,
analysis and prediction sponsored this work as well as several
related research efforts during FY 2000. This paper enumerates
some of the main features of the asymmetric environment and
summarizes shortfalls in our current wargame technology. It is
argued that contemporary developments in game theory provide a
flexible and promising framework in which to efficiently model
adversarial motivation and to generate representative asymmetric
strategies for improved automation of behaviors in simulations
and to support Information Operations analysis and planning.
Genetic programming and reinforcement learning are suggested
approaches for extraction and refinement of multi-player models
from historical data.
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