A Methodology and Results for Comparative Assessment of the Prediction
Performance of the Collaborative Routing Coordination Tools (CRCT)
September 2003
Kenneth S. Lindsay, The MITRE Corporation
ABSTRACT
The Collaborative Routing Coordination Tools (CRCT) is the prototype of a set of tools
to help the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to detect traffic flow problems in
advance, to generate problem resolutions, and to evaluate the resolution strategies.
CRCT does this by modeling four-dimensional aircraft trajectories and using them to
predict demand for sector usage. A methodology was developed and used to compare the
prediction performance of CRCT under various software and data configurations. The
methodology can be and has been used for other tools (e.g., the Enhanced Traffic
Management System (ETMS)) that predict sector demand. Several performance metrics
were defined and tools were developed to calculate the metrics from prediction data and
actual track data. The metrics assess how closely predictions match the sector loads that
actually occur. This paper presents the methodology used to assess CRCT’s prediction
performance and the results of various comparative performance analyses. The analyses
are based on CRCT runs against recordings of actual air traffic data on both good and bad
weather days. Analysis results are compared for the two weather days and for three Air
Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs).
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