Application of a Fast-time
Network Simulation to Air Traffic Flow Management Analysis
February 2005
Brendan P. Hogan, The MITRE Corporation
Leonard A. Wojcik, The MITRE Corporation
ABSTRACT
The Mid-Level Model (MLM) is a MITRE CAASD-developed fast-time network
simulation of the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) and other world
regions. We present a brief overview of MLM and an example of an MLM
application to Air Traffic Flow Management (TFM). TFM actions are commonly
used to mitigate capacity/demand imbalances within the NAS. Modeling
TFM events has proven challenging in the past, partly because of weather
forecast uncertainty, and partly because of the complexity and unpredictability
associated with highly-interrelated traffic patterns and distributed
decision-making in the NAS. We present results of an MLM simulation
of a NAS TFM event in which weather effects are relatively small. This
facilitates interpretation of the similarities and differences between
simulation results and the actual event in terms of NAS operations and
decision making, with relatively small weather-related complications.
We conclude that TFM modeling shows promise as a tool to aid post-event
TFM analysis, but the complex operational factors impose limits on the
predictability of outcomes in TFM events.
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