Solving Probabilistic Airspace Congestion: Preliminary Benefits Analysis
April 2007
Jim DeArmon, The MITRE Corporation
Craig Wanke, The MITRE Corporation
Dan Greenbaum, Jr., The MITRE Corporation
Lixia Song, The MITRE Corporation
Sandeep Mulgund, The MITRE Corporation
Steve Zobell, The MITRE Corporation
Neera Sood, The MITRE Corporation
ABSTRACT
In the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) a function called traffic
flow management (TFM) seeks a balance between resource capacities and the demands placed
upon them by air traffic. In general, capacity cannot be manipulated, and it is necessary
for demand to be altered to meet a reduced capacity. Typically, demand can be altered
in time (via delay, i.e., slowing flights so that the number per unit time is reduced) or space
(via rerouting, when specific airspace sector capacity is reduced, e.g., during severe en
route weather). This paper discusses the use of probability modeling for assessing airspace capacity,
and discusses comparison of three techniques for generating solutions to the problem.
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