A Monte Carlo Simulation for Evaluating Airborne Collision Risk in Intersecting Runways

August 2013
Michael E. Henry, The MITRE Corporation
Samuel Schmitz, The MITRE Corporation
Kevin Kelbaugh, The MITRE Corporation
Nikita Revenko, The MITRE Corporation
Download PDF (818.8 KB)

​The Intersecting Operations simulation model was developed to derive a set of separation standards for converging or intersecting runway operations to statistically mitigate airborne collision risk. This simulation incorporates synthetic trajectory models that capture both the variability of observed flight trajectories and the effects of environmental parameters. Through repeated Monte Carlo trials, the simulation derives the relationship between a given spacing metric and the relative likelihood of an airborne collision. An analyst may use this method to develop a strategy that mitigates unacceptable risk by ensuring that aircraft avoid situations more likely to result in a midair collision.​


Interested in MITRE's Work?

MITRE provides affordable, effective solutions that help the government meet its most complex challenges.
Explore Job Openings

Publication Search