Examining Arrival Time Predictability in the NAS Using Monte Carlo Methods

February 2012
Topics: Air Traffic Management, Airports, Modeling and Simulation
Seli Agbolosu-Amison Ph.D., member AIAA, The MITRE Corporation
David C. Millner, The MITRE Corporation
William A. Baden Jr., The MITRE Corporation
Gareth O. Coville, The MITRE Corporation
Phane Mondoloni Ph.D., Associate Fellow AIAA, The MITRE Corporation
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There are various mechanisms that produce the arrival time uncertainty. Some of these, such as the variability in airport capacity due to airport configuration and meteorological conditions and the variability associated with positioning in a growing or decaying queue, are considered in fast-time simulations of NAS-wide performance. This paper looks at the additional incorporation of variations that can occur in the times of three processes: pushback-from-gate, taxi-out to the departure queue, and taxi-in to gate (herein called the GTT processes).

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