The rapid expansion of both national and commercial activities between the Earth and the Moon has increased exposure to a form of physical disturbance that may not remain confined to a local area as it often does in Earth orbit, and thus cislunar traffic management will have to develop a means to deal with the effects of these disturbances in areas of cislunar space near unstable libration-point orbits.
Cislunar Crossroads: Why a Domain That Transports Its Own Disturbances Needs Polycentric Information Sharing
While cislunar space is developing into a shared operational environment, many of the debris mitigation policies and the information sharing policies are based upon those developed for Earth orbit. In this paper, we relate the unique physics of the Earth-Moon system to the governance mechanisms required to provide coordination of the increasing number of users within this expanding operating domain.
When 150 fragments were modeled as being released near the L2 point in the Earth-Moon system and propagated over time, 93 of them, or approximately 62%, moved outside of their initial bounded region. Some fragments escaped the modeled domain, other fragments impacted the surface of the Moon, and yet another group reached Earth vicinity. The resulting outcome demonstrates that a disturbance caused by a breakup near a libration point may have an impact well removed from the location of the original breakup.
Instead of advocating for a centralized database containing all known objects in cislunar space, our work presents a polycentric architecture wherein authoritative centers maintain their own data but agree upon common standards to facilitate exchange among centers. We also propose that there should be six elements in the “Minimum Viable Information” that each participant would be expected to share as a common participation floor. These six elements include:
- Operator identity and 24/7 point of contact
- Predicted ephemeris and realistic covariance
- Maneuverability and maneuver intent
- Orbit family and regime
- Physical and radio-frequency signature
- Mission phase and disposal plan
A two-stage measurement tool allows us to test which aspects of the Minimum Viable Information may contribute most significantly to the ability to manage space traffic. The current ranking is based on simulated and elicited inputs.
Our work combines reproducible physics, an author-proposed Minimum Viable Information set, and a measurable assessment process that will allow agencies and operators to assess which shared information contributes most to coordination efforts as cislunar space becomes increasingly crowded.