State-of-the-Art Capability to Support Transportation System Efficiency and Resilience

Our transportation infrastructure is critical to America’s safety, security, and prosperity. While handling routine service interruptions is part of day-to-day operations in the transportation arena, this complex and interwoven system is also vulnerable to extreme disruptions—from natural disasters, cyberattacks, equipment or communication breakdowns, and more.

A new capability under development at MITRE is designed to give stakeholders the insights they need to maintain the resilience of this vital infrastructure in the face of these and other challenges. It will also help them prepare in advance to mitigate disruptions—through improved design, planning, and operational execution.

Called the Multimodal U.S. Transportation (MUST) Analytic Environment, the capability will combine best-in-class models and data sources to provide a comprehensive view of our nation’s integrated transportation system.

"The interdependencies of the various modes of transportation we use to move people, goods, and services is a complex orchestration across private and public sector entities," says George Solomos, who is overseeing development of the MUST Analytic Environment. "So, what was needed was a capability to examine U.S. transportation from a multimodal, system-of-systems perspective. That’s what we’re creating with MUST."

"The unique value of MUST will not just be its ability to model the interdependencies of all major modes of transportation, but also their effects on various other sectors of society," adds Panta Lucic, Ph.D., an analyst on the MUST development team. These include the economic, environmental, energy, and equity impacts of specific transportation activities.

For instance, how might a cyberattack on critical infrastructure disrupt the supply of oil and gas? How could a collapsed bridge or washed-out road impede hurricane response and recovery efforts? Or how might port congestion delay the delivery of certain consumer goods?

On the flip side, how might improvements in transportation infrastructure enhance access to healthcare services, especially in rural or underserved areas? Or reduce road traffic congestion? Or promote urban development? Or reduce vulnerabilities from potential disruptions? These are all questions MUST is designed to answer.

Estimating the Impacts of Potential Disruptions

MUST will also analyze potential causes of supply chain delays and interruptions and their possible impacts.

"Supply chain disruptions can have wide-ranging effects on the economy and national security, impacting everything from healthcare and food supply to manufacturing and defense," explains Eric Buck, Ph.D., who leads MITRE's resilient transportation and logistics work. "So, ensuring a resilient and adaptable supply chain is critical for mitigating these risks." By identifying potential vulnerabilities, MUST will help transportation stakeholders respond proactively.

For example, MUST recently examined the potential impact of an International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports, which account for about half of the nation’s port capacity—measured by cargo volumes.

The study found that such a strike would produce substantial disruptions in the movement of cargo, impacting the local and national economy and supply chains. The economic impact of a strike lasting 30 days and centered at the New York/New Jersey Port was estimated at $640 million per day.

And, while West Coast ports could absorb some of the cargo that would need to be diverted, the study found that these ports would be unable to handle all the excess cargo. Researchers also noted that a port strike could lead to longer ocean routes and inland routes to move commodities to U.S. and international destinations, increasing costs and causing delivery delays that would have cascading economic effects on both businesses and consumers.

Additionally, the study found that the movement of some commodities, such as natural rubber and various metals, would be impacted more than others. Depending on existing reserves, industries that depend on those imports may therefore experience disruptions.

Planning Proactively for Supply Chain Interruptions

Analyzing the resiliency of the transportation network in times of natural disaster or other operational disruptions—and estimating how those disruptions might cascade throughout the system—is another capability MUST will offer.

MUST will enable transportation stakeholders to learn from previous transportation crises as well, such as the March 26 collapse of Maryland’s Francis Scott Key Bridge. That event triggered a months-long closure of the Port of Baltimore and disruption in American transportation logistics.

MUST will have applications to national security concerns too. "By analyzing critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, as well as demand and capacity along our networks, MUST can aid the Department of Defense in planning troop, munitions, fuel, and other supply movements in support of our national defense," says multidiscipline systems engineer Laurence Audenaerd, Ph.D., one of MUST’s lead developers.

Creating a MUST-Do List for Transportation Infrastructure

Other MUST applications include infrastructure investment planning and policy development.

"For instance, by identifying the impacts of vulnerabilities such as chokepoints and single points of failure in the existing system, MUST will help decision-makers determine where investments are needed to develop alternative routes or modes of transportation," explains intelligent transportation system modeling and simulation expert Sakib Khan, Ph.D., another lead developer of the MUST capability.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has identified the transportation sector as one of four "lifeline" functions and one of 16 infrastructure sectors vital to the safety and security of our nation. With MUST, MITRE will help the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, and other federal agencies keep this critical national resource strong, adaptable, and resilient.