With Data and Technology, Space-Weather Predictions Are Looking Up

In May, when a series of strikingly strong solar flares produced an Earth-directed solar storm, people as far south as Florida could view the Aurora Borealis: the Northern Lights. 

But sky-gazers enjoying the rare phenomenon may not have considered the flip side of that light show. Geomagnetic storms have the potential to deal a huge blow to communications, utilities, and other services whose equipment lives in the sky. Possible damage ranges from the inconvenience of a power interruption to breaches of national security. 

The forecast is clear: Space weather matters. That’s why MITRE is joining partners like the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to address the growing need for improved technology and understanding of space-weather ramifications.

"As more technology takes to the skies, MITRE will continue to be a trusted partner and objective third-party adviser in keeping our assets and our planet safe," says Kerry Buckley, vice president and director for the Center for Integrated Transportation.

Space: A Weather Frontier

"Space weather results from variation in the near-Earth environment," explains MITRE Space Weather lead Michael Cook. "Our sun produces different kinds of space-weather phenomena that can have real-life impacts on Earth and in space."

The sun produces a constant stream of particles known as the solar wind. Fortunately, Earth is mostly protected from these solar winds by a magnetic field that acts as a shield, protecting us from most particles. (When those particles do sneak by the shield and reach our atmosphere, the result is the Aurora.)

But space-reliant technology? That’s another story. Space-weather events can and do penetrate satellite electronics, degrade critical-infrastructure functions, cut off communications, and affect astronaut safety—to name just a few worst-case scenarios.

The Dark Side of Space Weather

Last spring’s geomagnetic storm was the strongest in more than 20 years, Cook says. And while the Aurora grabbed the headlines, grid and satellite operators were on high alert for not-so-pretty impacts. 

What turned out to be an accurate forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center provided stakeholders a head-start in putting mitigation procedures in place. For example, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation reported prep measures that included postponing routine maintenance to keep repair equipment available, adding generators, and temporarily taking particularly vulnerable transformers out of service.

Cook points out that most space-weather forecasts don’t have nearly the breadth and accuracy of terrestrial-weather forecasts—yet. "Here on Earth, we can pull up weather radars for small towns and entire countries, but at the moment we have far fewer operational space-weather observation points," he says.

"The more space-reliant we become, and the more we evolve in that realm, the more crucial it becomes to mobilize stakeholders and decisionmakers," Cook continues. "It’s about understanding the how, the what, and why we should care in terms of our space-based assets."

Tracking Patterns and Solutions 

MITRE’s FAA collaboration was a perfect storm of sorts.

When the FAA sought a space-weather vulnerability assessment for aviation operations, MITRE was ready. In addition to Cook’s space-weather expertise, we brought viewpoints from subject-matter experts Mike Robinson, Bill Bauman, Matt Fronzak, and David Strand, who come with rich experience in the airline industry and terrestrial meteorology.

The yearlong project with the FAA included analyzing vulnerabilities of precision landing operations and Advanced Air Mobility/Uncrewed Aircraft Systems that are reliant upon global positioning and navigation satellite systems. In addition, we identified and reported new potential communications vulnerabilities for the national air space system and studied impacts from ionizing radiation for commercial aviation, supersonic aircraft, and space tourism. 

Another area of focus was the satellite industry.

"Together, we were able to highlight areas of need to investigate for the future," Cook says. "Look at private enterprises like Amazon’s Project Kuiper planned constellation of satellites and Starlink. As we grow our space-based reliability, we’re increasing space-weather vulnerability."

MITRE has also been working with NOAA as well as with leaders across the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, the National Weather Service, and NOAA research arms regarding the need for a uniform space-weather strategy.

"Impactful solar events can occur at any time in a solar cycle," Cook emphasizes. "However, with current Solar Cycle 25 now headed toward solar maximum—the peak of solar activity when the number of sunspots is greatest—comes the potential for more impactful events."

What’s on the Horizon?

It’s crucial to address how solar storms affect us on Earth. Equally important? Upcoming projects that are out of this world.

Cook points out NASA’s planned Artemis missions could be vulnerable to solar energetic particle events. Increased radiation exposure resulting from solar radiation storms poses a threat to the health of astronauts on the moon, which "doesn’t have the luxury of a magnetic field like Earth’s," he says. "Looking back at the Apollo missions, we were lucky—there was nobody physically on the moon during significant solar events."

Cook continues, "At MITRE, it’s our mission to raise awareness of space weather’s impact on critical infrastructure and space-based technology."